About time, too. Word around the campfire up here in Minnesota was that activists wondered when Tim Pawlenty would start campaigning in earnest for Tom Emmer, the Republican nominee for governor. After eight years as governor, though, it’s also difficult to know how Pawlenty will impact the race. Both Mark Dayton, the DFL nominee, and Tom Horner, the Independence Party spoiler, have tried tying Emmer to Pawlenty in order to dent his numbers. Pawlenty hits both of Emmer’s opponents as tax-and-spenders without any clear plan to balance Minnesota’s budget:

It’s a good ad, and fits right into Emmer’s theme of fiscal responsibility. Emmer has eschewed talk of almost anything else, including what looks like an opening on same-sex marriage, because he’s certain voters are uniquely focused on jobs, the economy, and out-of-control government spending. How has that strategy played so far? According to Survey USA, which does regular polling in Minnesota for KSTP-TV, Emmer is just outside the margin of error, five back of Dayton (via Mitch Berg):

DFLer Mark Dayton is the leader in the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll with 42 percent. He’s five points ahead of Republican Tom Emmer, who came in with 37 percent. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is at 14 percent.

Seven percent of respondents said they either support someone else or are undecided.

Dayton is up by four points and Emmer by one point compared to a SurveyUSA poll a month ago. Horner, who has lost support among Independents and voters over age 50, is down by four points.

Survey USA hasn’t released its crosstabs yet, which usually get published a day or so after its clients use the poll data.  It puts the race closer to an earlier Rasmussen poll than the Humphrey Institute’s poll, but in the same ballpark as an earlier Star-Tribune poll.  It’s not exactly great news, but this race is still pretty fluid, and Horner’s retreat in the polling could shift supporters to Emmer in the final couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, the Star Tribune notices that Jim Oberstar is in big trouble in MN-08, and it’s because the Republican is actually campaigning in this election (link mine):

Rep. Jim Oberstar is learning that in a year of unpredictable politics, even household names have to defend their brand.

Former Navy captain and political novice Chip Cravaack is giving the 18-term congressman his first serious challenge in years — enough that national Republicans are openly salivating about the prospect of toppling the dean of Minnesota’s congressional delegation.

This race could have a big impact on the gubernatorial election, too:

Keeping the Eighth District in DFL hands has implications across Minnesota’s political spectrum. The Eighth is known for delivering big for Democrats on election night. Losing support there could upend secure seats in the Legislature and possibly even cut into support for gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton.

The same could be said about the race in MN-01, where Randy Demmer challenges Tim Walz, whose hold on this R+1 is already precarious.  Jim Geraghty highlights this race today:

Of course he voted for the stimulus, and Obamacare, and cap-and-trade, and card check. What’s more, Walz wants a timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan. Those consistently liberal stances doesn’t fit this district. It scores an R+1 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Bush carried it by four points, Obama carried it by four points. It includes Rochester (home of the Mayo Clinic) and farm counties to the west.

Now that he’s in trouble, Walz is running attack ads against his GOP opponent, Randy Demmer, calling him a “career politician” (he’s a farmer, an entrepreneur who started three businesses, and a state legislator) who wants to endanger Social Security, while touting his own NRA endorsement. He votes liberally; he just doesn’t want to talk about it much right before Election Day.

It’s no surprise Demmer is touting himself as “the right fit for the first district”; his commonsense approach of stopping the expansion of government and promoting personal responsibility fits the district much more than the lockstep party loyalty of the incumbent.

If you don’t help Randy Demmer replace this moderate district’s down-the-line liberal congressman, that Minnesota winter is going to seem just a little bit colder.

Helping Demmer also helps Emmer, a rhyme I just can’t avoid.  Having good GOTV organization in these districts could very well drive the top of the ticket, rather than the other way around.