Decision day in New Hampshire

With all of the heat and light on Delaware today, some may be forgiven for missing the well-contested primary in New Hampshire that concludes today, for the open Senate seat vacated by Judd Gregg’s retirement.  Despite the apparent late entry of Democrat Paul “Hot Dog” Hodes, the race actually includes Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, attorney Ovide Lamontagne, and businessman Bill Binnie.  Ayotte got an early endorsement from Sarah Palin, but the Tea Party lined up behind Lamontagne, and the race has become tight between the two, close to a virtual tie according to the Union Leader poll yesterday:

On the heels of a Sunday night poll showing Ayotte’s lead narrowing to 7 percentage points (see item below) comes a primary eve poll released late Monday afternoon by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies.

It shows Ayotte with 35 percent, Lamontagne with 31 percent, Bill Binnie with 14 percent and Jim Bender with 10 percent. Other candidates drew 3 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

The margin of error is listed as 3 percent, meaning that if the poll is correct, Lamontagne is now nearly in a statistical dead heat with Ayotte, who has been the front-runner for the nomination since she entered the race in the summer of 2009.

Unlike Delaware, Granite State voters have a choice of two good candidates in this race.  Lamontagne toured Blogger Row at CPAC and was impressive.  Ayotte, however, has won a state-wide race before (see update below) and has good polling against Hodes; Rasmussen shows Ayotte up 13 in a head-to-head race, although that was from five weeks ago.  They didn’t poll Lamontagne in the survey, so it’s impossible to see how he would do against the two-term Congressman.  Binnie beat Hodes by six, but as the Union-Leader reports, Binnie has fallen far off the pace in the last few weeks.

In this circumstance, either of the two Republican front runners would probably do well.  Ayotte would be the safer pick and has better fundraising success for the general election, but it should be relatively easy for Republicans to unite around the winner in New Hampshire — certainly easier than in Delaware.

Note: HA reader DogSoldier dropped me an e-mail earlier to let us know that turnout looks heavy today.  The Union-Leader expects a heavy independent turnout as well, with 80% breaking to the Republicans.

Update: I forgot that New Hampshire is one of the few states where the Attorney General is an appointed office rather than an elected office.  Ayotte has not won a statewide race before.  Thanks to Adam B for reminding me.