Charlie Crist has done well in Florida as an independent mainly at the expense of Democrats.  In fact, Kendrick Meek has done so poorly over the summer that some Democratic organizers have openly flirted with backing Crist over their own party’s eventual nominee in order to woo Crist into joining their caucus.  However, a resurgence by Meek and what appears to be a collapse by Jeff Greene has Democrats returning home — and Crist starting to slide:

Republican Marco Rubio has nudged ahead of independent Charlie Crist in Florida’s nationally watched U.S. Senate race in a hypothetical three-way matchup with Democrat Kendrick Meek, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released Saturday.

Rubio led Crist in the poll 38 percent to 33 percent, with 18 percent for Meek and 11 percent undecided. …

Crist’s fate depends on whether he attracts large numbers of Democratic voters in the general election, the poll found. The results indicate that Meek is gaining support among Democrats, which could draw votes away from Crist and give Rubio an advantage.

Meek now has a double-digit lead among registered voters in the Democratic primary, which will be held on August 24th.  The establishment favorite finally began running ads a month ago after Greene’s deep pockets had marginalized Meek.  The ads, along with a string of adverse media reports about Greene’s connection to Mike Tyson and alleged parties and his unpopular real-estate speculation have halted Greene’s momentum, perhaps for good.

The problem for Meek and the Democrats is that Meek will win only as the lesser of two evils.  The Mason-Dixon poll puts Meek’s favorability at an embarrassing 26%, compared to 37% unfavorable, with the rest neutral or unknown.  Most Democrats will naturally flock back to a Democratic officeholder, but they’ll be the only ones doing so.

Rubio, on the other hand, has gained popularity over the summer without spending too much money in doing so.  Rubio has used his earned-media strategy to keep pace with Crist, waiting for one of the two Democrats to start pulling support from the governor.  Mason-Dixon is the second pollster to see this trend develop.  Earlier this week, Rasmussen found almost the same numbers among likely voters:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Rubio with 38% of the vote and Crist at 33% if Congressman Kendrick Meek is the nominee. Meek earns 21%. Only one percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

If billionaire Jeff Greene is the Democratic candidate, Crist gets 37% support to Rubio’s 36%, with Greene trailing at 20%. two percent (2%) like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

The two polls are almost identical.  The difference is that Meek attracts more Democrats away from Crist, and Crist attracts fewer independents if Meek is the Democratic nominee.  Meek’s favorability rating looks worse in Rasmussen’s poll, 31/46.  Crist, though, still gets high favorability from Florida voters (58/39), who apparently like him as governor (58/40 approval rating) more than they want him to be Senator.

The conclusion?  Crist should have stuck with his re-election bid as Governor.  Instead, he will likely join the ranks of the unemployed — another victim of Barack Obama’s economic policies, but unlike most, a voluntary victim.

Update: Coalition of the Swilling notices that Crist’s favorability ratings took a huge dive in the Mason-Dixon poll:

Gov. Charlie Crist’s job approval rating has plunged to 44 percent, the worst for a Florida governor in 16 years.

For the first time in his nearly four years in office, Crist’s popularity slid below the 50-percent benchmark according to a Mason-Dixon poll released Friday. That’s down from 51 percent in the same poll in May.

“I think that any time you’re south of 50 and you’re an incumbent, and you have that good of a name recognition, you can’t be comfortable,” said veteran Republican strategist J.M. “Mac” Stipanovich.

The survey suggests that Crist’s gamble in April to flee the Republican Party in the face of a strong primary challenge from ultra-conservative former House Speaker Marco Rubio isn’t paying off, Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker said.

No kidding.  However, that’s still surprising, considering the Rasmussen results and how closely both polls come in the overall race results.  If Crist’s job approval ratings are starting to tank, it’s probably because he’s spent the last four months running against the Charlie Crist of the last three years — the one who had job approval ratings in the 60s.