James Carville’s Democracy Corps commissioned a poll at the end of July to test the mood of the electorate, and Brian Faughnan of Liberty Central gleefully discovers that voters are furious at Democrats. Despite the “Recovery Summer” sales pitch by the White House, voters are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy, and increasingly inclined to deliver a protest vote in November. Brian points to a few of the charts included in the analysis from Citizen Opinion, Carville’s pollster, and this one seems most relevant:
Until Joe Biden started pitching “Recovery Summer,” voters seemed reasonably split on whether to cast votes in protest of the administration’s policies, and may have even closed the gap a bit since the beginning of the year. In June, however, the drop in economic indicators began to be too big to ignore or jolly over with a sales pitch. The extension of bad news on employment also became so obvious that the media mainly stopped pretending to be surprised by it. The poll shows a wide margin of people planning protest votes.
This also goes along with a collapse in support for Democratic leadership on economics:
The most interesting part of this chart is that it shows little bounce for Democrats in March and April, when at least a few of the indicators looked more positive. Also note that Democrats have traditionally outpolled Republicans on the economy over the last couple of decades, and often on deficits as well. This is a big shift in American politics if this trend holds up; a -13 on economics is huge in these midterms especially. It could mean that the GOP has the opportunity to discredit Democrats for a long time to come, assuming that a win in the midterms means muscling the White House into a course correction.
It’s not just Democrats that voters have begun to reject, either. A majority have lost faith in President Hopeandchange, too:
The argument that Obama somehow rescued us from something worse than what we see now has worn very thin indeed. Only 41% buy that argument after eighteen months of Obama’s term of office. A majority in Carville’s poll sees the exploding deficit and the moribund economy as Obama’s fault, and a key cause of our current economic malaise.
These numbers are a disaster for Democrats, and an opportunity for Republicans to show real leadership on deficits, government spending, and economic development. This time around, it’s the GOP taking Carville’s mantra of “It’s the economy, stupid,” and hopefully putting it to good use.