Yesterday, Rasmussen showed Harry Reid dropping back behind new Republican nominee Sharron Angle by double digits, 50%-39%. Believe it or not, that was the good news for the Reid family this week. Rasmussen released its survey of likely voters in Nevada for its gubernatorial race, and suffice it to say that Reid’s son Rory would be glad to trade places:
Brian Sandoval, fresh off his Republican Primary win on Tuesday, now leads Democratic nominee Rory Reid 54% to 31% in the race for governor of Nevada, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.
Three percent (3%) of Likely Voters in Nevada prefer some other candidate, and 13% remain undecided.
The numbers in this race have changed little in surveys going back to February. In late April, Sandoval earned 53% of the vote to 35% for Reid, who faced only token opposition in the state’s Democratic Primary on Tuesday.
This marks Reid’s poorest showing to date, however. In the four previous surveys, his support has fallen in the narrow range of 33% to 35%. Sandoval in those same surveys earned 45% in February but has captured 53% to 55% of the vote since then.
It might be difficult to determine whether the son is dragging down the father, or the father is dragging down the son. There isn’t that much difference in support between the two, only eight points, which is less than the gap between Harry and Angle — and almost three times less than the gap Rory faces.
In looking at the internals, it’s not difficult to diagnose the problem. Rory’s favorables are under water, just like Reid père, 42/50. Sandoval, by contrast, has a 62/39 favorability, and both men only have 9% unsure. Rory can only muster a 39/46 among independents, which means he can’t expect much of a boost from outside of his party.
For that matter, he can’t expect much of a boost from inside of his party, either. Rory gets only 58% of the Democratic vote, with 31% going to Sandoval. Rory only gets 4% of the Republican vote, despite a tough primary contest won by Sandoval, showing that the GOP has indeed coalesced around its nominee, as Rasmussen points out. Sandoval wins among both men and women, wins all age demographics, wins majority support in all income demographics except losing the <$20K demo 21/45, with 29% undecided.
The Reids may well go down into political oblivion together, and the analysis will probably be that Harry’s woes caused Rory’s downfall if they do. But even Harry gets more support than his son does, which is really saying something about the dire situation Reid fils faces.