After the House finally passed the Senate version of ObamaCare on Sunday, allowing Barack Obama to sign it into law on Tuesday, many analysts expected a bump in his approval ratings. Regardless of whatever people thought of the legislation, at least Obama accomplished what he set out to do, even if it did take nine months in a Congress controlled by his own party. Quinnipiac’s survey suggests that Obama may wind up with a dead-cat bounce instead:
Despite passage of his signature health reform bill, President Barack Obama still gets a split 45 – 46 percent approval from American voters in a Quinnipiac University national poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, compared to a negative 46 – 49 percent approval in a survey concluded Sunday before the House of Representatives voted on the health care bill. These are President Obama’s worst grades so far, tying his 45 – 46 percent approval February 11.
The survey polled registered voters, a sample group traditionally somewhat more sympathetic to Democrats than likely voters. The entirety of the survey took place after the “historic” vote by the House late Sunday night. If these respondents were inclined to any reaction at all, it appears to have hardened their attitude toward Obama rather than softened it.
Respondents only slightly softened towards the legislation itself, disapproving 40/49 from 36/54 earlier in the month. They still take a dim view of those who supported the bill:
By a 38 – 25 percent margin, voters are less likely to vote for House members who voted for the health care bill, with 34 percent who say the health care vote won’t affect their decision.
By a 33 – 27 percent margin, voters are more likely to vote for House members who voted against the health care bill, with 35 percent who say the health care vote won’t affect their decision.
“The first read from the voters is that they are more inclined to punish those lawmakers who voted for the health care overhaul than reward them,” Brown said. “This is a key question. Whether and how these numbers change in the next seven months will tell us whether, in fact, this will be the kind of November Republicans are hungering for and Democrats are dreading.”
Jim Geraghty warns that these numbers might change between now and November, but it would take some significant positive developments:
But my guess is, people will have to feel and experience tangible improvements in the way they get health care between now and November.
Heck, Democrats can’t even deliver the edge-nibbling they promised this week.