Now that US forces have pulled back from major Iraqi cities, the political pressure in Iraq to withdraw entirely appears to have eased.  Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki floated the idea that the US and Iraq could negotiate a much longer US presence in the country at the end of the status-forces agreement, which expires in 2011.  The Obama administration didn’t exactly stun people with their enthusiasm for that idea:

Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki has hinted that US forces could stay in Iraq beyond the current deadline of 2011.

In a speech at a Washington think tank, he reiterated that the troop presence is due to end on 31 December 2011, under a bilateral agreement.

“Nevertheless, if the Iraqi forces required further training and further support, we shall examine this then at that time,” he said. …

On Wednesday, the Iraqi leader met US President Barack Obama, who said the US would stick to the withdrawal deadline.

It’s easy to see the motivation for Maliki’s trial balloon.  The pullback of US troops has left the Iraqi security services in charge, but also emboldened militias and the remnants of al-Qaeda to conduct attacks.  Violence had dropped consistently over the last eighteen months but rose sharply in the last four weeks as insurgents test the Iraqis.  Political problems between Kurds and the Arab Iraqis have deepened in that time, and the unrest in Iran has apparently not stopped the meddling of Tehran in the south.  Maliki would like to see a backstop to this chaos in case it gets beyond the ability of his security forces to address it, as long as the US plays a supporting rather than leading role.

However, that will be doubly difficult for Obama in 2012.  So far, he has not gotten too much resistance from his anti-war base for staying in Iraq under the SOFA agreement, even though he foolishly pledged to have all troops out by June 2010.  That leeway comes, ironically, from the fact that George Bush had prevailed in Iraq over his opposition at home and the terrorists facing the troops.  His “surge” strategy dramatically lowered the violence, greatly reducing political pressure from Democrats for a full withdrawal.

But in 2012, Obama plans to run again for the presidency, and he won’t get a pass for extending Bush’s SOFA agreement.  He will also face a crushing deficit as he goes to the voters, thanks to his spending programs and the stalled economy.  Obama will need to claim every dollar of savings he can find, and the expense of keeping tens of thousands of American troops in the Iraqi desert will give him another excuse to complete the withdrawal on schedule.

The message from the Obama White House will be, “You’re on your own, pal.”