Ricci dents Sotomayor support

The high-profile reversal of Sonia Sotomayor’s judgment on Ricci has taken the momentum away from public support.  A new Rasmussen poll shows that a previous eight-point plurality favoring her confirmation to the Supreme Court has turned into a two-point plurality of opposition.  The real risk is to Barack Obama’s efforts to paint himself as a reasonable moderate on the judiciary:

A heavily publicized U.S. Supreme Court reversal of an appeals court ruling by Judge Sonia Sotomayor has at least temporarily diminished public support for President Obama’s first Supreme Court nominee.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, conducted on the two nights following the Supreme Court decision, finds that 37% now believe Sotomayor should be confirmed while 39% disagree.

Two weeks ago, the numbers were much brighter for the nominee. At that time, 42% favored confirmation, and 34% were opposed.

As usual, the crosstabs tell an interesting story.  First, the most damaging numbers may not come from the confirmation question at all, which is a statistical split.  Her favorability rankings look simply terrible for someone supposedly outside the political arena.  She has a net favorability of -13, with 49% having an unfavorable view of Sotomayor.  She has a -8 among women (47%-39% unfavorable) and a -16 among men (53%-37% unfavorable). Majorities find her unfavorable in almost every income bracket, with the exception of <$20K and $60-$75K.

That spells trouble for Obama as Sotomayor heads into high-profile hearings in which issues like Ricci and other reversals will get scrutinized even further.  Obama planned on showcasing Sotomayor as his proof that the accusations of extremism against him were false.  Republicans have an opportunity to show how partisan and hard-core activist Obama is, and the American public has begun to agree that Sotomayor isn’t a moderate or excellent choice at all.

The GOP will almost certainly not be able to stop her from taking her seat on the Supreme Court, nor will Obama abandon Sotomayor at this point.  The damage from Ricci will be significant, though, and it will reinforce the notion that the Obama White House does a lousy job of vetting its nominees.  It will erode confidence in Obama at a time when the White House wants to get the American public to trust it to run the energy and health-care industries.  It’s bad timing, and the administration may want to put off the hearings until after its legislative battles have finished.