The Democrats took a political risk this week by bringing Card Check legislation to the floor of both chambers of Congress. They should have enough votes in the House to pass the bill, so the real battle will take place in the Senate. Unfortunately, at least thus far, the gamble has backfired. One Democrat has publicly gone against it in its current form (Ben Nelson), and three others are wavering (Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor).

Harry Reid thought he could pick up a few Republicans to get past a cloture vote, but Arlen Specter has heard Pat Toomey’s footsteps and has begun backpedaling. Rumor had it that Democrats tried pushing Lisa Murkowski too, but as this video of Murkowski in the Alaska legislature shows, they’re probably barking up the wrong tree:

The idea of flipping Murkowski is a little odd, anyway. While Specter voted for Card Check in 2007 — when it had no chance of becoming law — Murkowski helped sustain the filibuster against it. For that matter, so did Susan Collins, one of the other likely flippers, and she and Olympia Snowe have already announced their opposition this time around.

Reid, it appears, has miscalculated. Murkowski won’t get budged.

Update: One thing to watch is the “in its current form” talk.  Everyone who has come out in opposition recently has said this; Murkowski says it in this clip.  More than likely, a bill that strips out the actual card-check certification and the more onerous parts of the arbitration requirements.  What will come out of Congress will wind up looking more like incremental change on the timing of organizing elections, and that’s probably all.  They won’t even get that much if Reid keeps pushing this version of Card Check so publicly.