Georgia Senate poll: Chambliss up 3

It looks like the Georgia Senate run-off may get as close as the general election — and the latest Politico poll puts the two candidates in roughly the same position.  Saxby Chambliss leads Jim Martin by three, within the margin of error, the same margin that he held at the end of the general election.  This time, though, Martin may not get the turnout model he needs to win:

Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss holds a narrow lead over Democrat Jim Martin in the Dec. 2 Georgia Senate runoff, according to a new Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll.

The poll shows Chambliss leading Martin by three points, 50 to 47 percent, with three percent of respondents undecided. The first-term GOP senator’s lead is within the poll’s four-point margin of error. The Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll surveyed 523 likely voters on November 23.

The poll numbers are almost identical to the general election results, when Chambliss fell just short of the 50 percent necessary to win the seat outright on Election Night. He led Martin 49.8 to 46.8 percent, with a Libertarian candidate taking three percent of the vote.

So far in early voting, though, Martin’s getting bad news:

But the early signs are not encouraging for Martin. During the presidential election, African-Americans composed a record 30 percent of the electorate in Georgia — about 5 points higher than in the 2004 presidential campaign. And in early voting, they totaled 35 percent of the vote.

In the runoff, even as Democrats are vigorously encouraging supporters to vote early, only 22.7 percent of the 150,500 ballots so far have been cast by African-Americans.

The lower turnout among African-American voters could be fatal to Martin’s hopes.  The Strategic Vision poll shows massive support for Martin among black voters, 89-8.  The SV turnout model relies on blacks comprising at least 25% of the vote.  The fewer that Martin gets to the polls, the better for Chambliss.

Voter enthusiasm for Martin has declined since the general election.  Martin got his momentum from the massive numbers of Obama voters, most of whom appear less interested in the remaining down-ticket race.  Chambliss may not have that problem, since John McCain didn’t generate an enthusiastic response from the Republican base, meaning that Chambliss’ voters will be motivated more by Chambliss himself.  Republicans have the secondary motivation to deny Obama a filibuster-proof Senate by ensuring Chambliss’ re-election.

Either way, it looks like it will go down to the wire.  Republicans around the country who want to keep at least one potential check on the excesses of single-party government had better start actively supporting the Chambliss effort.  You can help by contributing to Saxby Chambliss here or at the NRSC, and learning more about Martin’s record here.