The return of Scowcroftian foreign policy

When Barack Obama ran for president, especially in the primaries, he relied on a group of foreign-policy advisers that included radical leftist thinkers like Robert Malley, Susan Rice, and Samantha Power.   The rise of Hillary Clinton for Secretary of State gave political watchers the first indication that Obama would not follow that direction after winning office by gaining the trust of the Left.  The Wall Street Journal looks at the rest of the team forming on foreign policy and sees even stronger indications that Obama will instead fall back to the foreign policy direction of President Bush — George H. W. Bush, that is:

Many of the Republicans emerging as potential members of the Obama administration have professional and ideological ties to Brent Scowcroft, a former national-security adviser turned public critic of the Bush White House.

Mr. Scowcroft spoke by phone with President-elect Barack Obama last week, the latest in a months-long series of conversations between the two men about defense and foreign-policy issues, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The relationship between the president-elect and the Republican heavyweight suggests that Mr. Scowcroft’s views, which place a premium on an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord, might hold sway in the Obama White House.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who was deputy national-security adviser under Mr. Scowcroft in the George H.W. Bush administration, is almost certain to be retained by Mr. Obama, according to aides to the president-elect. Richard Haass, a Scowcroft protégé and former State Department official, could be tapped for a senior National Security Council, State Department or intelligence position. Mr. Haass currently runs the Council on Foreign Relations.

Other prominent Republicans with close ties to Mr. Obama — including former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who endorsed the Democrat in the final days of the campaign, and Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — share Mr. Scowcroft’s philosophy.

I’m not particularly enamored of Scowcroft’s foreign policy.  He exemplified the supposed “pragmatist” policies of the past that led us to prop up kleptocrats and dismiss democratization activists.  His advice over the last few years, offered in op-ed columns, has represented mostly a retreat to the past, and his positions on Israel have been more reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain than Winston Churchill, or Golda Meir, for a better example.

However, I see Scowcroft as a huge improvement over Susan Rice, Robert Malley, and Samantha Power.  The Scowcroftian school at least still understood the advantages of Israel as an ally.  It also viewed American power as essential for a globalized economy, and its projection as a necessity, although in much less Wilsonian terms than Bush 43.

Based on his campaign rhetoric, Obama appeared to have adopted the Jimmy Carter/Zbigniew Brzezinksi foreign policy.  I’ll take Brent Scowcroft any day of the week over the Carter/Brzezinski model.

Of course, George W. Bush appeared to go that direction as well but turned Wilsonian after 9/11.  Assuming Obama sticks with the Scowcroft model, how will that impact his standing among the Left?  Not only will they not see the sweeping economic changes they expected with Obama, but now they’re going to get the foreign policy of Bush 41 — hardly the kind of Change they expected.  I’d expect to hear some wailing and gnashing of teeth in those circumstances.