Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows John McCain and Barack Obama in a dead heat, with or without leaners, within 72 hours of the close of the convention. Obama’s convention bounce has completely disappeared, and McCain’s bounce may not yet have peaked:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.
In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When “leaners” are included, it’s all even at 48%.
This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August.
McCain continues to draw better among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats, and he’s taking more Democrats away, too. He gets support from 89% of Republicans versus 81% of Democrats supporting Obama, and draws 15% of Democrats. Obama’s edge among women decreased slightly from 7 points to 6, while McCain’s edge with men increased to 7 points from 3.
Obama’s bounce peaked on the Tuesday following the convention, when he rolled out to a six-point lead after two days of relative inactivity from the GOP during Hurricane Gustav. McCain and Palin have not let the grass grow beneath their feet this weekend, and I’d predict that his bounce has not finished its trajectory yet. By Tuesday or Wednesday, we should see the results of the convention in full.