California may have the fourth-largest economy in the world, but even within that state, rising through the political ranks, the scrutiny a candidate gets is not remotely comparable to what a candidate for president is subjected to.
State politics tends to be insular, with political machines shepherding their favorites while destroying or buying off the people who challenge them. California's machine is, if anything, better tuned and more greased than most because there is so much money involved and so much back-scratching that outcomes can usually be pre-determined by choices made months or even years prior to their coming to fruition.
Gavin Newsom is a perfect example of this. He rapidly rose through the ranks, from the San Francisco Board of Supervisors to mayor of that city. Then Lieutenant Governor, and now Governor. He had plenty of scandals along the way, but none of them mattered because he was picked to rise to the top.
That's not how things work, exactly, at the level of presidential politics. While the Democratic Party has had enormous power in choosing candidates due to a rigged nomination process, the level of control is far less on the national scale. There are party factions, and media folks are not all aligned on candidate choice. Even local reporters, who go along to get along at the state level, see an opportunity to stand out by revealing dirt or digging into things that would have gone unnoticed before.
In 2020, Kamala Harris was the Democratic Party's early favorite, but she crashed and burned under the harsh light of national scrutiny, so Biden became the default choice, and the Party carried him over the line. Willie Brown could get her to the Attorney General's office in California, but even with national Democratic Party support, she crumbled.
Remember Diaper-Gate? We fact-checked the diaper math. Now, we're fact-checking the process.
— CBS Sacramento (@CBSSacramento) July 8, 2026
Nearly two months after the announcement, California still hasn't released the Baby2Baby contract or bid records. Now, lawmakers want to give agencies even more time to respond to public… pic.twitter.com/fn8mAypd7I
Remember Diaper-Gate? We fact-checked the diaper math. Now, we're fact-checking the process.Nearly two months after the announcement, California still hasn't released the Baby2Baby contract or bid records. Now, lawmakers want to give agencies even more time to respond to public records requests.
Even if Newsom weren't facing a federal investigation, I'm pretty sure the efforts to take him out would only intensify. There is an awful lot of material to work with, and a great incentive to take him down, given the growing split in the party. Despite Kamala Harris' standing in the polls at the moment, she would have an extremely difficult time taking Newsom out on an even playing field, and many of the other candidates would love to see him go down.
All of them have media folks who will help them.
So expect to see more stories like CBS Sacramento's taking the shine off Newsom and perhaps openly exposing his corruption. As long as Newsom doesn't look inevitable, he is extremely vulnerable to the motivated scrutiny of the many, many people who would love to draw blood.
Until they have to circle the wagons behind an inevitable candidate, all the incentives for reporters and partisans are to pick apart Newsom's personal life and career. It's hard to imagine that he would come out unscathed, given how corrupt California is and how Newsom has been in the middle of it all for decades.
2027 is going to be brutal for him, just as his campaign kicks into high gear, and if he winds up looking vulnerable, he will get the Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell treatment.
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