Skunks at the Garden Party? Hezbollah and Houthis Could Be Empowered

If there is one sure thing you can bet on, Iran will use the momentum toward getting a "deal" with President Trump to protect and strengthen its proxies in the Middle East. 

I can't judge whether Trump really is desperate enough for a deal that he would give in to Iranian demands to shield the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah from attacks, but I can say with 100% certainty that Iran thinks he is, and they will try to use that in their negotiations to hamstring the US and Israel. 

How do I know that's true? Iran has, for all intents and purposes, claimed sovereignty over Lebanon, demanding concessions from Israel and the United States that even the Lebanese government doesn't want. 

🇱🇧 NEW: Lebanon Foreign Minister Joe Raggi insists the “Lebanon issue must be separated from the Iran issue,” rejecting any efforts from Iran to stop Israeli attacks on Beirut’s behalf.

“We do not accept that anyone negotiate on our behalf or sign agreements in our name. That… pic.twitter.com/xBGGPePw5H

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) June 13, 2026

🇱🇧 NEW: Lebanon Foreign Minister Joe Raggi insists the “Lebanon issue must be separated from the Iran issue,” rejecting any efforts from Iran to stop Israeli attacks on Beirut’s behalf.

“We do not accept that anyone negotiate on our behalf or sign agreements in our name. That would inevitably be to our detriment,” Raggi told Le Figaro on Friday. The remarks came after Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Friday that any agreement with the United States was conditional on an end to Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

“It is also a matter of the country’s sovereignty and the independence of our decisions,” said Raggi, who was appointed to his position by PM Salam in 2025.

“Moreover, the courageous decision of the president of the republic to negotiate directly with Israel, under U.S. auspices, has proven that we can pursue an independent path,” he added.

🎥 The Foreign Minister also launched a sweeping attack on both Iran and Hezbollah in an interview with France’s LCI two days ago, accusing Tehran of having “spread chaos, terror and instability throughout the Middle East and even across the world” while holding the Iranian people “hostage” under a regime that “has no remorse about massacring its own people.” 

Raggi said Hezbollah had “dragged Lebanon into a war that has nothing to do with us,” describing it as “an armed arm of Iran” used to “control Lebanon and destabilize the entire Middle East.” “Hezbollah’s weapons are useless,” he said, and claimed the group “could neither liberate Jerusalem, nor support Gaza, and not even defend Lebanon.” 

Lebanon has banned the IRGC and is trying to kick them all out, and wants to disarm Hezbollah. Instead, Iran seems happy to authorize Hezbollah strikes on Israel, to test how far they can poke the bear without getting hit. 

BREAKING: Hezbollah warns Israel 'there will be no return to the pre-March 2 status quo'

🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/3XpVX9ZC3I pic.twitter.com/epQA6AUTws

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) June 15, 2026

Then there are the Houthis, who everybody seems to have forgotten. They seem to be active again, and claim to have closed the Red Sea to some shipping, and have recently attacked a ship. Will Iran restrain them? Rearm them? One of the keys to Iranian power is control over key territories far outside their borders, and no doubt they will use these negotiations to strengthen their proxies. 

On June 8, the Houthis announced a total ban on ‘Israeli and Israel-linked shipping’ in the Red Sea, declaring such vessels legitimate military targets.

I have not seen much discussion about Iranian proxies beyond Hezbollah in the proposed MOU. Yet today alone, the Houthis… pic.twitter.com/MLioPXwcfF

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 15, 2026

On June 8, the Houthis announced a total ban on ‘Israeli and Israel-linked shipping’ in the Red Sea, declaring such vessels legitimate military targets.

I have not seen much discussion about Iranian proxies beyond Hezbollah in the proposed MOU. Yet today alone, the Houthis attacked 2 ships off the coast of Aden.

This could become a major complication.

It's too soon to say whether those attempts will be successful or not, but not at all to predict that Iran will push very hard to gain power through rearming its proxies and using them to spread influence, and likely to attack Israel. 

In other words, they will continue their campaign of asymmetric warfare. 

None of us know whether Trump has any red lines on these issues. He may or he may not. 

But surely it matters. Allowing Hezbollah and the Houthis to reconstitute, and any increased flow of weapons to Hamas, would be disastrous. 

It's true that Iran, for now, has been hurt far more severely in this war than they admit, and that Trump is right that their aspirations for a nuclear weapon have been set back. But the future shape of the Middle East will be determined by how much rope we give them to reconstitute their regional power, including their proxies. 

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