I am glued to the polls. 

You probably are too. And the early voting numbers. And the commentary on the election. And the Twitter feed. And and and. 

I make my living talking about this stuff, and I will continue to write, speculate, examine the details, etc. etc. etc. 

#NEW FINAL BATTLEGROUNDS poll - full ballot

🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+5
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump+4
🔴 NEVADA: Trump+4
🔴 GEORGA: Trump+2
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1
🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+1
🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+0.3

AtlasIntel | 10/31-31 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 31, 2024

Yet few things that are happening matter a damn right now, other than what is going on behind the scenes, mainly, in the swing states. Get out the vote efforts. Legal tussles, voter turnout, voter interference, shenanigans. The polls are looking backward and measure opinion. 

How is it not an arrestable crime for Party apparatchiks to be accosting people on line to vote? https://t.co/h5hJyEn26M

— Cruadin (@cruadin) October 31, 2024

What matters is what people DO. Supporting somebody in the abstract means nothing if the person doesn't show up at the polls or stay to wait in the long line. Barstool talk is not the same as marking a ballot, and complaining about shenanigans means nothing if they are not exposed and dealt with in real-time. 

The media is in full BS mode. I was reading a NY Times newsletter from their political reporter Nate Cohn and it was a masterclass in media bias. He was trying to make a similar point, and this is what he wrote:

This may be a “newsletter,” but we don’t usually write very much about what’s happening in the news. That’s because most of what happens from day to day doesn’t usually have a lasting effect on the campaign. The news cycle moves on, and so do voters. People have short memories. Remember when Donald J. Trump was convicted of a felony?

But with less than a week until the election, many less engaged voters are tuning in and making up their minds — right now. The news today can make a difference, and the recent news cycle has been driven by two items that haven’t been especially favorable to Mr. Trump.

First, John Kelly, his former chief of staff, said Mr. Trump fit the definition of a fascist, naturally turning the political conversation toward Mr. Trump’s conduct on Jan. 6 and the issue of preserving democracy, where Kamala Harris has the advantage.

Second, a comedian, in the context of a political rally for Mr. Trump at Madison Square Garden, referred to Puerto Rico as an “island of garbage,” sparking a backlash on social media and reminding many voters why they didn’t like Mr. Trump.

These events are drawing attention to some of Mr. Trump’s greatest liabilities at the most important part of the cycle. It’s hard to say whether it will make a difference, but the possibility ought to be taken seriously given the timing and the very close race.

Did you notice anything missing? Days after the Madison Square rally the joke still came up; no mention at all of the PRESIDENT OF THE FREAKING UNITED STATES in a campaign Zoom call telling his viewers that half the country is garbage. 

Leaving out the biggest news story of 2 days because, well, Trump. 

All the news that is fit to print. 

Still, what the Times says or does doesn't matter right now. It no longer drives opinion outside the elite class, and lots of people have seen or heard the comment and resent it. 

Independents are joining the garbage people. 😂 pic.twitter.com/I5cjLtBB3n

— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) October 31, 2024

The garbage event, which did matter, will motivate voters and is bringing out, oddly, energy and JOY! on the Trump side. We aren't so much angry as determined. We already knew they thought of us as garbage. This was an exclamation point. 

We aren't garbage. We are garbagemen who will take out the trash on November 5th. 

The big question, as always, is who shows up. Polls don't tell you that; ballot counts do. 

So think of following the polls and the commentary as political entertainment of a sort, like reading a Tom Clancy novel "based on real events" or possibilities. Don't get your hopes up or worry too much. The cake is almost baked. 

Let's hope it tastes good.