I am pretty sure that the Harris campaign is not experiencing JOY! when looking at this poll. Despite unending positive coverage of Kamala Harris and unrelenting negative coverage of Donald Trump, according to Gallup, more Americans approve of Donald Trump than Kamala Harris.
Not by a lot, you understand, but it sure suggests that the media fluffing and constant attacks on Trump are not working as expected.
Trump is more popular than Harris in the Gallup poll. https://t.co/M8VvMNshaI
— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) September 18, 2024
This, more than anything, puts the exclamation point on the failure of the Democrats and the media's failure to understand the American people. As they keep pushing out a narrative meant to help Harris and harm Trump, they really haven't moved the needle as much as they need to.
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Nearly identical percentages of U.S. adults rate Donald Trump (46%) and Kamala Harris (44%) favorably in Gallup’s latest Sept. 3-15 poll, during which the candidates debated for the first time. Both candidates, however, have higher unfavorable than favorable ratings. Trump’s unfavorable rating is seven percentage points higher than his favorable score, and Harris’ is 10 points higher.
Harris’ bump in favorability after her unexpected nomination as the Democratic presidential nominee has moderated somewhat, while Trump’s favorability is up five points since last month, returning to the level he was at in June.
Before you get too excited, fewer than 50% of Americans like either candidate, and the difference between the two candidates' favorability is small and within the margin of error.
In the all-important Independents, though, Trump trounces Harris:
Despite the overall negative tilt in favorability, both candidates enjoy nearly unanimous positive ratings from their own party faithful and negligible positivity from the opposing party. While majorities of independents view Trump and Harris unfavorably, the former president holds a favorability edge over the current vice president with the group -- 44% vs. 35%, respectively.
Still, Trump's favorability today is substantially higher than in 2016 or 2020, despite the vitriol that has been aimed at him for years.
This data seems to suggest that Trump is in much better position to win than the public polls suggest, and it lends credence to the suspicion that the polls themselves are part of an attempt to create a narrative in which Harris is cruising to victory.
We don't KNOW that, but it's hard to ignore that Trump keeps getting more popular.
Nate Silver shows Trump as the favorite, while ABC's 538 predicts a Harris victory.
🚨 JUST IN: Nate Silver 2024 election model update
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 17, 2024
ELECTORAL COLLEGE (NO-TOSSUP):
🔴 Trump: 287 🏆
🔵 Harris: 251
WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 56.2% (+12.6)
🔵 Harris: 43.6%
SWING STATES:
🔴 ARIZONA: Trump 71%
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump 65.4%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 64.7%
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA:… pic.twitter.com/YI6dBjbfZq
None of us knows what will happen in November, but Trump is better positioned to win than in either 2020 or 2016 at this point in the race.
It will all come down to Pennsylvania, almost certainly, so expect Kamala and Walz to spend a lot of time there.
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