If the polls are to be believed, Kamala Harris is doing pretty well in the race to become president. 

If you look at what Kamala Harris is doing and saying, not so much. 

🚨 WORD SALAD ALERT 🚨

"I am feeling very good about Pennsylvania because there are a lot of people in Pennsylvania who deserve to be seen and heard." pic.twitter.com/yjoWSqTljC

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 13, 2024

My Redstate colleague Bonchie wrote a great piece on the difficulties Harris is facing and the fact that Harris' internal polls show a much gloomier picture than the one provided by public polling. If the information shared with CNN is real, then Harris is fighting an uphill battle. 

Internal polls--the ones that parties and candidates commission for their own use--do everything they can to avoid gaslighting and spin because campaigns need real information to guide their spending and efforts. Public polls may be honest or may be spin, but internal polling can't afford that luxury because you can't address a problem without knowing what it is. 

At a leadership retreat for top aides in Wilmington last week, Jen O’Malley Dillon – the campaign chair hired by Joe Biden and retained by Kamala Harris – ticked through the battleground states and warned them: the vice president still did not have any one sure path to 270 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania looks rough, though very possible, by their internal numbers before the debate. North Carolina, disappointing Democrats every election for the last 15 years, is feeling better to them this time around than Arizona, which Biden narrowly won four years ago. Nevada and Georgia both seem possible, though depending on the poll, can take a lot of squinting. Michigan and Wisconsin are looking like the best of the bunch for Harris, according to the campaign’s internal numbers.

As pumped as Harris aides are about her debate performance earlier this week, they don’t think it changed any of that.

If Harris is planning to spend a lot of time and money in Pennsylvania it won't be because she loves cheesesteaks, however yummy they are. It's because it is the must-win state for her (and Trump) and it is looking very shaky. 

If you look from the outside, things look good for Harris, and the media mavens liked what they saw at the presidential debate. 

🇺🇲 Presidential Election Forecasts (Sept. 13) - Chance of Winning

• @FiveThirtyEight - 🔵 Harris 56-43%
• @RacetotheWH - 🔵 Harris 56-44%
• @DecisionDeskHQ - 🔵 Harris 54-46%
• @CNalysis - 🔵 Harris 52-47%
• @jhkersting - 🔵 Harris 51-48%
• @NateSilver538- 🔴 Trump 61-39% pic.twitter.com/6nAN1KqlTe

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 13, 2024

Right now, the betting odds and national polls look pretty good for Harris, while Nate Silver is calculating a Trump lead in the odds for the election. 

The pundits may be right, but I don't think so. My gut tells me that Silver is closer to the truth--Harris has a path to victory, but it is a tough slog and requires winning the Keystone State. And "feelz" ain't going to do it for her. 

Harris is going to have to take some risks, and the campaign is risk-averse. They want everything to be celebrity-driven, but while that will inevitably drive up turnout in low-propensity younger voters, it won't move the people in Western Pennsylvania and in other states to vote for Harris. She needs to build confidence with them, not enthusiasm with 20-somethings. 

Harris' strategy to erase her negatives has largely worked, even worked brilliantly. That provides her a good floor with Democrats and crazy cat ladies; what it doesn't do is bring in working-class voters who are sour on the Biden administration. 

Kudos to her advisors for doing the almost impossible: turning Harris into a credible candidate. Now they have an even bigger mountain to climb: convince swing voters she is on their side.