Conventional wisdom is that while campaigns are a long slog that go on for months or, in some cases, years, the average voter doesn't really tune in until after Labor Day. 

It is now that campaigns transform from a marathon to a sprint. 

If that is true--and with the advent of very early voting, it is less so--then we are entering the sprint phase of the election race. 

So now is a good time to step back and take stock of where we are. 

At the beginning of July, nothing could stop the momentum for Trump. Joe Biden's collapse in the debate put an exclamation point on the already apparent reality that Biden would lose, and Trump supporters were nearly giddy about his prospects. Trump's reaction to the July 13th assassination attempt elevated him to legendary status, making his victory nearly inevitable. 

Then the switcheroo happened, and the brainwashing campaign to turn Kamala Harris into a goddess of Joy! kicked in. If you ever doubted the corruption of the mainstream media and its willingness to lie without remorse, surely all doubt must have evaporated. Kamala Harris suddenly became a MAGA candidate, against illegal immigration, for reducing taxes, tough on crime, and as brilliant and articulate as an Oxford professor of Philosophy. 

The brainwashing campaign worked, but not as well as many think. Harris has managed to take a slight lead in the polls--a gut punch to those of us who not too long ago assumed Trump had the election in the bag--but she is barely holding on to a lead that is as slim as a sheet of paper. 

At this point in 2020, Biden was up by over 7 points and Clinton by 4. Trump beat Clinton and almost won against Biden. Some of this has to do with the Electoral College advantage Republicans have and some has to do with "shy" Trump voters who don't like to talk to pollsters.

This is solely my conjecture, but my assessment is that Harris' support is rather thin. Her candidacy is what we call "Vaporware." Lot of vague promises about something great coming in the future without any substance to back it up. The media call her version of this "vibes," and the "vibes" are very real and have translated into some positive numbers. But it is impossible to know whether vibes today will translate into votes in November. 

I have my doubts. The "vibes" got her into the game; people are willing to listen to her now. 

But she--literally--has nothing to say. She can't. First, she can't talk, and second, she can't tell us what she will do because her entire political career has been pushing radicalism, which doesn't sell outside California, New York, and Illinois. 

Kamala's campaign advisors have been magicians so far, levitating Harris above the ground to the oohs and ahhs of the crowd. But can they keep it up? I can't say for sure, but it feels like the Harris/Walz team are like Wile E. Coyote running over a canyon, and once they look down, they can do nothing but fall. 

Two months is a long time to keep your mouth shut, especially after six weeks of keeping your mouth shut. Neither Walz nor Harris is talking about anything other than recipes, and I doubt that this will be enough to win the White House. Things are happening in the real world, and presidential candidates need to discuss them. 

The longer tape here is so clarifying. After taking multiple questions from the press, a reporter mentions the hostages, and his staffer immediately springs into action and tells him to leave the gaggle. https://t.co/YXEtmvx8UB

— Jordan Schachtel @ dossier.today (@JordanSchachtel) September 1, 2024

Harris and Walz have nothing to say. And, I suspect Americans who haven't already made up their minds will want to hear some answers. It's pretty hard to run a campaign for president without ever answering a question about national and international issues, especially at a time when most Americans are unhappy about the state of the world. 

It would be more comforting to see Trump ahead in the polls rather than behind, but I like Trump's chances. Harris' honeymoon is ending and she will be forced to start talking, and she is no good at talking. Anonymous campaign spokesmen are unlikely to be sufficient over the longer term, and in campaign time two months is longer term. 

I could be wrong. Never in my life have I seen the mainstream media so willing to carry water for a candidate, even Barack Obama. They likely would have for Obama--they LOVED him--but he didn't need the assistance so much as Harris. 

The election will be close, but I put my money on Trump right now. Harris is as weak a candidate as ever, and Walz doesn't exactly grow on people. Every bit of popularity they have has been generated by the media, and there is only so much they can do.