It was an amazing decision! Trump hit it out of the park! Can you imagine a better pick?

Or: Everybody knew it was going to be Vance. What a letdown! 

Or: I knew it! Vance is the perfect successor to Trump and will excite the base and set the stage for another 12 years of MAGA rule after November!

Or: WHAT A BETRAYAL OF MAGA! Trump picked a RINO who attacked him in 2016 and the uniparty wins!

The truth is, no matter who Trump announced today, it would be exciting to some and a disappointment to others, and the choice will likely only have a marginal impact on the results this November. If that. That the Vice President choice was J.D. Vance is interesting to a very small group of people, it's just that this group includes political geeks like us. 

OHIO SENATOR J.D. VANCE — THE NEXT VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES pic.twitter.com/axfSh6rLTU

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 15, 2024

To most Americans, it will have little to no impact because V.P. choices don't matter, and even J.D. Vance is an unknown figure to them. A very select group of people know who he is, and few will care, for good or ill. Chances are that few people could name Mike Pence, and he was Vice President for four years. 

This election is all about Donald Trump and was always destined to be. He is a once-in-a-generation figure from whom people cannot look away for long. 

Congratulations @JDVance1!

Excellent decision by @realDonaldTrump.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 15, 2024

J.D. Vance was very on-brand for Donald Trump, and aside from his ability to speak well and likely crush Kamala at a debate he will do little to alter the path of the campaign. Almost no choice could have, except perhaps Glenn Youngkin for geographic reasons. And geographic reasons wouldn't move Trump in any case. He doesn't think like that. 

For a brief moment, the mental capacities of President Biden were the dominant narrative. How could it not be? The spectacular downfall of a president and the abortive civil war in the Democrat Party was too juicy to ignore. 

Here’s the deal about J.D. Vance. He talks a big game about working people. But now, he and Trump want to raise taxes on middle-class families while pushing more tax cuts for the rich.

Well, I don’t intend to let them. And if you’re with me, pitch in: https://t.co/ALkc9uHFh9

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 15, 2024

Still, unless Biden dropped out of the race, the focus would naturally turn back to Trump's personality. Trump is just that exciting to watch, and Biden is just that boring. Biden will become a meme, and the only interesting thing about him would be the gaffe watch. 

A lot of political geeks will be laser-focused for the next few days on Trump's pick, and Democrats will try to pick him apart, focus on Vance's earlier critiques of Trump, and they will make little headway with public perceptions of Trump's campaign. None of that matters because Trump is the focus of attention. 

It's Vance. Many in the media will now play his comments from more than eight years ago on Trump on a loop for the next 24 hours.. https://t.co/HhV93VaVXO

— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) July 15, 2024

Donald Trump is too large a personality to have people take their eyes off him for too long. 

In other words, there will be a lot of breathless commentary, outrage and/or celebration, but it will be all sound and fury signifying nothing. That isn't a knock on Vance at all. It's just that Trump is Trump, and always the most interesting guy in the room. 

Donald Trump is the story. The period between the debate and the assassination attempt was an aberration--and only because Trump made sure the spotlight was off him in order to let the Democrats have their civil war. After Saturday, 90% of the race will be focused on Donald Trump. 

The VP pick will be a blip. I think. 

With that said, my predictions have a consistent track record of being wrong, so take everything I just said with a mountain of salt. 

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