Zero, zip, nada. Not a chance in hell. 

Sounds about right to me. 

WASHINGTON — Several of President Joe Biden’s closest allies, including three people who are directly involved in efforts to re-elect him, told NBC News they now see his chances of winning as zero — and the likelihood of him taking down fellow Democratic candidates growing.

“He needs to drop out,” one Biden campaign official said. “He will never recover from this.”

For two weeks, Biden has struggled to stabilize his campaign following a late-June debate debacle. His ongoing clean-up effort, which is scheduled to include top aides meeting privately with Democratic senators and a presidential news conference Thursday, has done little to reassure lawmakers and party officials.

Instead, the reverse is happening.

The set of Democrats who think he should reconsider his decision to stay in the race has grown to include aides, operatives and officials tasked with guiding his campaign to victory. Those who spoke to NBC News said the sentiment that he should exit and leave the Democratic nomination to someone else — most likely Vice President Kamala Harris — is widespread even within the ranks of the campaign and the outside Democratic entities supporting it. 

Again, sounds about right to me. 

But something besides political operatives finally expressing their personal opinions is going on here, just to be clear. Sure, that is one of the things going on--everybody loves to spout off about their opinions and appear to have secret knowledge others desperately want to know. That is human nature. 

But people at this level also know how to shut up when necessary. They drop leaks like this for a reason on top of their egos. They have a goal, and in this case the goal is to force Joe Biden out of the race. 

Ever since the debate--even before the debate, in the case of Obama's closest associates--there has been a campaign to drive Biden off the ticket. Not everybody was on board with that plan, but as time has passed the momentum has grown. 

It's not, as Ed said, a conspiracy per se. Pre-debate, most people were reluctantly on board with Biden; now there is panic.

“The question for me, and a lot of us, is: Who is the best person to beat Donald Trump?” another person working to elect Biden said. “There are a lot of us that are true blue that are questioning our initial thoughts on that.” 

Ultimately, the decision rests with Biden on whether he stays in, and the president has been insistent this week that he’s not going anywhere. But these sources say that Biden is done — whether he drops out before November or loses to Trump on Election Day.

Hours after NBC News asked Biden aides about that conclusion, campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez sent a memo to staff Thursday outlining why they believe the president can still win.

“Our internal data and public polling show the same thing: this remains a margin-of-error race in key battleground states,” they wrote. “The movement we have seen, while real, is not a sea-change in the state of the race — while some of this movement was from undecided voters to Trump, much of the movement was driven by historically Democratic constituencies moving to undecided.”

All the people leaking have some implicit or explicit support for doing so, and they have a motive besides loyalty to the party. They need to save their own political futures. Nobody wants the blame for Biden's loss, so they are trying to get their fingerprints off of it even if they stay on the campaign. 

"I did it out of loyalty, but I told you it was hopeless so don't blame me."

🚨🚨 Scoop: @AndrewSolender has reporting that says President Biden is poised to face a sudden flood of House Democrats urging him to exit race REGARDLESS of the NATO press conference, more than 6 lawmakers tell him.https://t.co/AbRgbq2ftf

— Jake Wilkins (@JakeWilkns) July 11, 2024

What you are seeing reported isn't straight news, even now. It is all motivated. Aides want to save their own skins; party apparatchiks are trying to save their own skins; elected officials, ditto. And journalists? They want to keep the last shred of credibility they have, however small that is. They can't keep telling people that the evidence before their eyes is false. 

The irony is that none of these people can do more than jawbone Biden and his crime family. They hold most of the cards, including the money already in the bank. New donations are drying up, but Biden says he will go on even if he has to be limited to the money on hand. 

Will Biden buckle? Perhaps. But not likely. 

This is likely just rats leaving a sinking ship. 

House Dems prepare to break with Biden if he tanks NATO press conference https://t.co/4y0PfWcLiV

— POLITICO (@politico) July 11, 2024