Well, that didn't take long. 

Even yesterday, the smart money was betting that Joe Biden would be the presidential nominee. 

No longer. 

As Ed wrote earlier today, The New York Times has published a story that Joe Biden has, for the first time, conceded that he may not be the best candidate to take on Donald Trump. This story has been vociferously denied by the White House, raising questions about its credibility. 

I have my doubts that Biden actually said that, at least so directly. There are so many machinations and Democrats are so committed to using hoaxes to get their way that it is equally likely that somebody who wants Biden out leaked this. 

Washington always works that way, and Democrats are such liars that it comes naturally to them. It makes a great story, could be true, but it smells a bit off. I will believe it when I see it. 

Still, you can't ignore--and you shouldn't take as gospel--the betting odds. People are putting their money where their mouth is, in this case literally, which tends to make the prediction markets a bit more reliable than polls. 

Answering a pollster with wishcasting costs you nothing. Placing a bet hits you in the wallet. 

Ed makes a great point:

The White House called this report "absolutely false," but apparently the same ally told CNN the same thing. As for it being false, let's not forget that White House called Biden videos "cheap fakes" too. It's tough to believe that Biden would refuse to even consider a withdrawal, especially with all of the criticism coming from fellow Democrats, including a handful who have called for Biden to step aside.

Of course, "go well" is a very flexible term. If Biden can manage to stay awake long enough for ABC to edit him into coherence, and if Jill Biden can escort him off the stages this week after reading off teleprompters, that might be enough to give the Bidens a claim of vindication for staying the course.

Would that be enough for the Democrat base? According to CNN's Harry Enten, Democrat voters seem committed to the bit.  Two-thirds of them insist on keeping Biden in place on the ticket, in the most recent Reuters poll. That's not going to put much pressure on party leaders that fear a cognitive-decline reaper in November up and down the ballot, he explains:

A big issue with getting Biden out? Democrats don't want Biden to leave the race. The voters who could pressure their elected leaders want Biden to stay in.

The data right now don't look like Truman (52) or Johnson (68). They look a lot more like Bush (92), who stayed in & lost pic.twitter.com/HxmyO57fQP

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 3, 2024

Biden is the biggest story going right now, so it's natural that everybody has an opinion and wants to give it. This is in the Democrats' world a political earthquake, and everybody is talking about how many casualties there are and whether their loved one--in this case Biden--will pull through after being (mortally?) injured. 

So people's ability to make informed predictions is hampered even more than normal, and most people's predictions are terrible even in normal times. When you are predicting political events, you are almost mind-reading. 

Ask Democrats about how good their predictions were about the effects of Trump's legal problems. Not so good. 

Still, not only are we all glued to our screens seeking data, but the collapse in confidence is a real news story. No doubt these predictions also change the odds. Democrats see the collapse in confidence and it reinforces their own doubts about the president's chances this November. 

Stay tuned. And if you haven't figured it out yet, Hot Air and Townhall Media are among the few media outlets these days that aren't feeding you a steady stream of hoaxes. We call 'em like we see 'em. Help us stay in business by subscribing to our VIP program. Use code SAVEAMERICA for a whopping 50% off!