Joe Biden's polls will not likely crash after a free fall. The core of the Democrat Party will stick with him to the bitter end, and Blue-leaning voters will hold out hope (now that Biden has apparently decided to continue the fight) that the president can recover after "one bad night."

We may be surprised at how long it takes for Biden's numbers to collapse, and how many people stick with him. Biden will have many good moments, even good days, and the Democrats and their most devoted enablers in the mainstream media will point to them and insist that everything is fine. 

That's the pitch the new Biden ad makes, in fact. One minute of Joe looking strong, supposedly proving that all is well. He had a cold. 

Folks, I know I’m not a young man, but I know how to do this job.

I know how to tell the truth. Donald Trump does not.

Watch our new ad. pic.twitter.com/xhOD1KfGfO

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 1, 2024

Expect that the folks who want to be convinced will feel relief, even get a sugar high from Biden's best moments. Biden supporters will be on an emotional rollercoaster. Until the roller coaster pulls back into the boarding station, it will appear that the campaign is moving fast along the track. 

Yes. It really will take a while for Biden's poll numbers to show that his campaign cannot recover. And even more surprising, expect that many Democrats will commit to voting for him no matter what, even were he in a coma. 

.⁦@RepJamesClyburn⁩: “I have not heard a single person express anything negative [about Biden following his debate]. All they are saying to us is, ‘Keep Joe Biden moving forward’.” pic.twitter.com/U9Gg8paKsz

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) July 1, 2024

The professional Democrats all know that this is a disaster, and all of us should, too. Short-term ups and downs mean nothing for one simple reason: no number of good moments or days will be able to hide the fact that the number of bad moments, hours, and days will only increase as time goes on. 

That is how dementia works. It is inexorable and an ugly process. 

On Thursday night, the dam started breaking; the meltdown began; the plane started diving to the ground; choose your metaphor, but the meaning is the same: this president cannot win the election. 

Professional Democrats, practically speaking, don't control the process anymore. Jill Biden does, and until she is convinced that Joe has to go he will continue. And by all accounts, she LOVES power. Here is Vogue...published after Thursday night's debate. 

This is something else:

“I If you want to know what power feels like, try to get yourself driven around in a motorcade. Flashing police chaperone lights form a perimeter as you blaze down an empty highway, waiting cars backed up on entry ramps as you pass. It’s as if the world… https://t.co/MLyqyEbe2d

— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) July 1, 2024

That's pretty hard to give up, which I suppose explains why many tyrants cling to power, even as the peasants with pitchforks are storming the seat of power. 

Expect to be treated to story after story of potential replacements jockeying for positions, but only outsiders can state the obvious fact that Biden has to go--and outsiders don't have the power to make it happen. They can further weaken the president but not displace him. Those who can, conceivably, won't. 

WATCH: Fox News reports Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has warned the Biden campaign her state is no longer winnable

“A political earthquake” - @NoahCRothman tells @BretBaier and @DanaPerino
pic.twitter.com/MwurUTO9s8

— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) July 1, 2024

What can't go on forever won't go on forever. But it will usually take much longer for the inevitable to happen than you might expect. Biden won't win on November 5th, but he might still be the candidate on election day despite it being obvious he is not fit to be president. 

The president's team will emphasize every bit of good news, ignore every bit of bad, and gaslight the donors and America. It will work better than you expect and not well enough to ensure a Biden win. Biden was already behind the 8 ball, and now he is mortally wounded. 

Biden's family and his team don't see it that way, of course, and are working overtime to convince others that the impossible is still possible. After all, what do THEY have to lose? Either way they are going to be kicked out of the White House, so why not roll the dice?

Axios outlines the Democrat strategy for Biden to recover, and let's just say that I and many others have doubts:

Based on our weekend conversations with top officials and advisers, here's the Biden survival strategy:

1. Dismiss "bedwetting." The official White House and campaign line is this is much ado about nothing — that Biden works so hard it drains his young staff. This attitude is driving elected officials and donors — basically any top Democrat not on the Biden payroll — nuts. They feel it's delusional. Nonetheless, Biden allies are cranking out data and pushing out surrogates to insist he had one bad night, mostly because of a scratchy voice and over-preparation.
2. Squeeze polls for juice. Biden allies are circulating polls and focus group results showing the debate did little to change the dynamics of the race. They're ignoring contrarian results — like a CBS/YouGov poll out Sunday that shows a surge in voters who think Biden is not up for the job. If you're to believe the polls: Voters thought Biden lost the debate and seemed too old. But there's little evidence they're moving fast to Trump. Both seem true.
3. Warn of chaos. Biden allies are making plain in private conversations the perils of an open convention — and the risk of picking a Democrat even more unpopular than Biden, namely Vice President Kamala Harris. They know Biden just needs to make it to the Democratic convention in Chicago, which opens eight weeks from today. After that, unity is the only choice.
4. Limit dissent. Biden allies helped orchestrate the supportive tweets by former Presidents Clinton and Obama. Those happened after furious back-channeling by allies. Truth is, that was the easy part.
5. Keep elected leaders close. The White House knows Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries are deeply concerned that an unpopular Biden could cost them seats on Election Day. Their members in tough races are scared, and several plan to run away from Biden. Former Sen. Tom Harkin, who served with Biden in the Senate for 20+ years, said in an email to supporters that the debate was "a disaster from which Biden cannot recover."
6. Get the donor class to chill. Jeffery Katzenberg and other top Biden backers are working the phones to reassure the deep pockets, while the campaign and DNC keep turning out fundraising appeals and highlighting successes. Some donors are blaming the staff — not the man on stage. John Morgan, a Florida personal-injury-law magnate who's a top Democratic donor, tweeted Sunday that Biden's debate-prep team is guilty of political malpractice: "Format was a disaster for him and a plus for Trump. He over practiced and was drained."
7. Prove vitality. Words can't capture how elated top officials were that Biden was as vigorous as he was at a rally in North Carolina the day after the debate. They're looking for as many opportunities as possible to show that he's still on his game and not too old for the gig. They know words are useless — they need vitality in action.
8. Ignore/engage the media. On the one hand, Biden allies want everyone to ignore the prominent columnists who loved Biden and are now calling for his resignation. On the other, the campaign and White House are deeply engaged with reporters (like us) writing about presidential fitness.

What's next: Biden's kitchen cabinet sees a recipe for a narrow victory that includes a grand-slam speech at the Democratic convention in Chicago + a strong showing in the next second debate + positive economic news in the fall (maybe a Fed rate cut).

The bottom line: Biden's camp believes voters will give more weight to Biden's judgment and record than to his grandpa gait or fading debate dexterity. It's one of the greatest gambles in the history of politics. Once again, Biden's team is telling Democratic voters: You just have to believe.

Everybody knows that Biden shouldn't be on the ticket, at least outside the residence in the White House. However, only Biden (or his Cabinet) really has the power to remove him from office or the ballot. And, at least for now and a while to come, that looks vanishingly unlikely. 

So instead, Democrats will ride an emotional rollercoaster, thrilling to every lucid moment and becoming dejected at every stumble. If Biden is on the ballot in November, he will still garner tens of millions of votes, but he cannot win. And as that reality dawns on the true believer holdouts, this reality will become obvious even to them. 

They will trudge to the polls or dutifully fill out their ballots, secure in the knowledge that Biden will lose. Because enough Biden voters are not true believers, they will defect or decline to vote. 

Intrigue is always good for ratings, so the MSM will pump Biden up, drag him down, and do stories on backstabbing, defections, Democrat depression, and Lady Macbeth Biden because the ratings will be good for them. 

And the campaign will drag on unless Biden simply collapses. That, too is possible I suppose, but the smart money is now betting on Biden sticking it out and losing. 

If so, Democrats have chosen a long, slow death march to November 5th.