This wasn't supposed to be possible: Pierre Poiievre's Conservative Party won a special election in a seat held by Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party for over 30 years.

Now everybody is talking about Justin Trudeau's future--not about whether he can survive as Prime Minister after the next election, which was always in doubt, but whether he can survive in the very near term. 

Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result

The message has been sent to ⁦@JustinTrudeau⁩ !!
Expect his resignation soon. ! https://t.co/VP0UvIUxjk

— Concerned Canadian (@Concern70732755) June 25, 2024

Poilevre is, as you know, an extraordinary politician, while Trudeau has become ever more unpopular as his party has tacked farther and farther left. But nobody thought the Conservatives would be able to pull off a victory in a seat considered safe for the liberals for decades. 

Conservative candidate Don Stewart has won the longtime federal Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, a stunning result that raises questions about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future.

Stewart's victory is shocking because the seat has been held by the Liberals for more than 30 years — even through the party's past low points, such as the 2011 federal election that returned just 34 Liberal MPs to Parliament.

Before Monday's vote, a Conservative candidate hadn't been competitive in Toronto–St. Paul's since the 1980s. The party hadn't won a seat in urban Toronto since the 2011 federal election.

Liberals were so confident of victory that they held a victory party thanking everybody who campaigned for their candidate before the results came in. 

Oops. 

Liberal's introducing Leslie Church as the next MP for Toronto St. Paul's while celebrating.

A premature climax to the campaign. pic.twitter.com/N4J8vrSe3y

— Cory Morgan (@CoryBMorgan) June 25, 2024

Conservatives improved their standing in the district by 17 points over the last election, while Liberals lost 9% and the New Democrat Party lost 6%. Those are shocking numbers. Toronto is hardly known as a conservative Mecca.

Trudeau is seen as the big loser. While his party hasn't come close to losing their majority in the Parliament, the results show that it is past time to hit the panic button and to find another candidate to lead their party in the next election, coming in 2025 (or before). 

For more than seven hours of counting, Liberal candidate Leslie Church was in the lead. But with 189 of 192 polls reporting, the lead flipped to Stewart.

The final batch of votes posted around 4:30 a.m. ET delivered the seat to Stewart and a major breakthrough to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

In the end, Stewart, a consultant, claimed victory with about 42 per cent of the vote against Church, a former Parliament Hill staffer and lawyer, who took roughly 40 per cent of the ballots cast.

The Liberals' poor showing in a stronghold like this could prompt some soul-searching for Trudeau, who has seen his popularity plummet as inflation, the cost of living crisis, high home prices and surging immigration levels drive voter discontent.

This Conservative upset is likely to lead to some anxiety in the Liberal caucus because such a dramatic vote swing could put other supposedly "safe" seats in play for the Conservatives in the next general election.

Generally speaking, in Parliamentary governments, people vote for parties over candidates more than in the United States. Candidate quality is hardly irrelevant, but it is rarer to have somebody vote for a candidate more than for the party of which they are a member. It's impossible not to see this election as anything but a rebuke to the Liberals. 

It's clear that if the election were held today the conservatives would win in a walk. But of course the election isn't being held today, and the Liberals have to be considering finding a different leader to change the narrative. Trudeau has become poison. 

Ultimately, though, the Liberals face a bigger problem than Trudeau. Canadians are in a bad mood, blame it on the Liberals, and unless things dramatically improve, the Conservatives will get a shot at running things. 

Poiievre, at least for now, sounds pretty conservative, not just in name but in policies, but as we all know, rhetoric often falls by the wayside when politicians gain power. 

Still, with the exception of Britain the West seems to be tacking right. Let's see if the pattern holds here in the US.