Did you know that Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies? 

I sure didn't. It's hardly been mentioned by anybody. I suspect that people who are less aware of politics may not have heard of this at all!

New: Biden campaign w/ a new ad:

“This election is between a convicted criminal who’s only out for himself and a president who’s fighting for your family.”

will run on general market television and Connected TV in all battleground states and on national cable, per campaign pic.twitter.com/sl8yZqRdSz

— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) June 17, 2024

There are all sorts of other issues Biden has barely mentioned, like January 6th, extreme MAGA Republicans, and the fact that Donald Trump has sent some mean tweets. 

The polls will surely move quite a bit once the American public learns these shocking facts. 

This commercial is, obviously, exactly what Democrats have been aiming to say for a long time; the lawfare against Trump has been about little else than being able to say "Donald Trump is a convicted felon," although they wouldn't have minded something that could put him in jail before the election, which will not happen. 

Nobody but Rachel Maddow viewers believe Trump's conviction will survive appeal because the case is such BS, so it was a publicity stunt, and they got what they wanted. 

Now, Biden is pouring $50 million into this advertisement telling people...what? Something everybody knows and few people actually care about. 

Joe Biden’s campaign is unleashing its most biting attack yet against Donald Trump, ripping into his 34 felonies in a TV ad for the first time after largely ignoring his criminal trial for weeks.

The ad, part of the campaign’s $50 million June ad buy, represents a test of whether a scorching negative campaign against the former president can drag him down from his current polling lead.

The ad, which will air across battleground states starting Monday, casts the election as a stark choice “between a convicted criminal who’s only out for himself and a president who’s fighting for your family.” It’s a full-on assault on Trump — and a theme the campaign is turning to in an effort to reset Biden’s reelection from a referendum on his job performance to a choice between the president and his predecessor.

“In the courtroom, we see Donald Trump for who he is. He’s been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault and he committed financial fraud,” the ad’s narrator says, flashing photos of Trump sitting in the courtroom. “Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s been working — lowering health care costs and making big corporations pay their fair share.”

Perhaps I am wrong, and people will respond positively to this ad, but I suspect that it will never reach that $50 million spend because it won't have the intended effect. This is about testing a message--clearly one that works OK in focus groups--to see if it moves the polls. 

The problem is simple: the second half of the advertisement undercuts the first. This election is a choice between a man many people dislike but whose policies they remember fondly and a failing president who they think is too old, too incompetent, and who is making their lives worse. 

Convicted felon? So what?

In normal times this ad might work, but a lot of people feel gaslighted and are tired of it. 

SUPERCUT!

Corporate media: Don't believe your lying eyes, Biden's never been sharper! pic.twitter.com/FW6e2ZPT5i

— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) June 15, 2024

It's true that there is a large contingent of "double haters"--people who dislike their choice this November. If the election were about Donald Trump he could lose to a generic Democrat; but it is about Joe Biden, whom people have very strong opinions about. 

By now, most people have made up their minds and unless something radical changes it will all come down to Pennsylvania voters. Biden would have more luck taking that $50 million and handing it out to undecided voters in exchange for their ballots. 

Trump could certainly lose, but if he does I doubt that repeating "convicted felon" will move the needle.