Europe has large ambitions and very modest capabilities, and they haven't quite figured that out yet. 

They talk loudly and carry a small stick. NATO, without the US, is a paper tiger. Proving once again that Donald Trump was right when he cajoled Europe to increase defense spending. 

The EU will no longer be able to defend the shores of Yemen from the Houthis

Admiral Vasilios Griparis, head of the EU Aspides mission in the Red Sea, said it was impossible to further ensure the safety of navigation in the region due to a lack of ships. The German publication… pic.twitter.com/b1sI0Ph25O

— Peter Roman (@TsarKastik) May 5, 2024

You haven't heard much about the Houthis lately, mostly because the Western powers have been aggressively patrolling the Red Sea and have conducted airstrikes on Houthi positions. 

However, as the operation goes on, it becomes clear that European powers don't bring much to the table when it comes to projecting power. 

Germany is withdrawing one of its ships, weakening an already understrength deployment and putting the mission at risk. This shouldn't shock anyone who has been paying attention, but so few people do. It is easy to assume that Europe, being a relatively wealthy (but declining) economic zone, would have significant military assets to deploy. 

They don't. For decades--since the fall of the Soviet Union--Europe has relied almost exclusively on the US security umbrella and let its military capability atrophy. Even now, with a fair amount of saber rattling, Europe has done little to increase its capabilities. They talk war with Russia, but their only real protection lies in distance from that opponent. 

Poland has more military capability than Germany, and could likely beat them in a war. How times have changed. 

Translated from German:

For the coming months, however, Gryparis drew a less confident picture. After the withdrawal of the frigate "Hessen" at the end of April, only three warships would be available to him for the coming months. With this small fleet, he can escort a maximum of four merchant ships per day through the Bab al-Mandab Strait off the Yemeni coast. For his order, however, he needs at least ten warships, and air support by a drone or a sea reconnaissance aircraft is also necessary.

The danger from the Houthi attacks is more acute than ever. According to the commander, the Houthis succeeded for the first time at the end of April to saturate the air defense of the EU ships with a swarm of drones and to damage a merchant ship. Although the warships have a modern anti-aircraft system that can fight several targets at the same time. With a whole swarm of drones, however, even the most powerful systems give up at some point.

The mission requires 10 warships; it has 3. That is truly pathetic. 

The Houthis are medievalists, although they have access to modern Iranian weapons (the supply chain for which we should be cutting). The combined might of the European continent is incapable of defeating them. 

I have written several times before about the parlous state of the European militaries. Germany barely has a military anymore, and the UK can't recruit enough soldiers for even a modestly-sized military. Generals are musing about drafting soldiers, while one can imagine them training with broomsticks or World War II rifles. 

Germany has the much-touted Leopard tank, but it turns out that there aren't spare parts and they haven't been maintained. Reportedly they have been something of a bust in Ukraine. 

The United States is really the only country in the world with robust power projection capabilities beyond a relatively small regional footprint. Usually, that is not a problem and is even an asset to the US as it allows us to implicitly dictate terms to our allies. 

But so many regions of the world are on fire, and our capabilities are stretched really thin. We have been reducing our relative capabilities for quite a while and are burning through ammunition at a prodigious rate, supplying Ukraine. 

Our Navy is way too small, and we have tried far too much to substitute quantity with quality, and often that quality is questionable at best. Littoral Combat vessels, anyone? 

And it's not clear that our current capabilities match the threats anymore. We use wildly expensive missiles to take out cheap drones, and you can't keep doing that forever. 

Of course, the underlying problem is that Biden's policies have increased risks dramatically. Iran is the true source of the threat in the region, and Biden keeps shoveling money in their direction. Our navy would be more than adequate to threaten Iran and calm things down in the region if Biden deployed it offensively rather than constantly putting it at risk on the defense. Biden could have driven the Iranian ship providing targeting information to the Houthis out of the Red Sea, or even sunk it. 

That would have made a difference, I can tell you. 

But both Europe and the United States have never missed an opportunity to make serious mistakes, and until Biden is gone that won't change. 

Nor will Europe's weakness.