Kevin McCarthy’s ouster has some people shouting for joy, others gnashing their teeth, but most people just think WTF or even “Who?”

The premise behind the ouster is simple: McCarthy was just another in a long line of “swamp creatures” who promised the moon and delivered a piece of green and moldy cheese. Far from being a bold, conservative leader, the former speaker betrayed true conservatives by not cutting spending, passing a budget in regular order as promised, and worst of all, compromising with the Democrats in the Senate.

I get that argument. I also think it is wrongheaded.

Defending Kevin McCarthy the man is pointless because that isn’t the issue. Whether McCarthy is a great conservative or a RINO doesn’t really matter at this point, and it didn’t matter much when he was Speaker of the House. My own sense is that he was far more conservative than he was given credit for by his critics, but McCarthy’s opinions as a person hardly mattered the last 9 months.

The only thing that mattered was the math: in the House, there are 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats. In the legislative branch, there is a (barely) Republican House and a Democrat Senate. And, of course, Joe Biden is the most Left-wing president in modern history.

In other words, McCarthy had little freedom of action, and unlike Nancy Pelosi he barely had the votes to become Speaker in the first place, after an extended battle to get there. He entered the office crippled by the very people who eventually kicked him out of it.

If there is one word to describe the McCarthy era it is “constrained.” McCarthy had no room to move in any direction, and that will be true of the next Speaker if we ever get one. He was constrained by Democrats and constrained by his own party. He had a sword of Damocles over his head from the moment he took his seat.

Matt Gaetz and his compatriots moved to vacate the speaker’s chair because they disapproved of McCarthy’s leadership, as was their right. They believed that McCarthy’s delivering a piece of moldy green cheese instead of the moon was a matter of choice on McCarthy’s part, and that somebody else could do better.

Who? How? Do they have an alternative who can in this environment actually deliver better outcomes?

That is the only question that matters.

I, for one, don’t care much about whether McCarthy got a raw deal or a fair deal. He got the only deal on the table. If I were his friend I would care, but I’m not.

What I care about is whether the country will be better or worse off when this drama is over.

The biggest issue on the table will likely be the investigations into the Biden corruption, COVID-19, and the weaponization of government. If the new Speaker of the House needs Democrat votes in order to assume power, as seems quite possible, those investigations will be the price the Democrats demand to get their votes.

The investigations are the only things that matter in the 2024 Congress. I hate to say it, but that is true. The next Speaker will be as constrained by the math as McCarthy was–if you don’t have the votes and the power there isn’t much you can do. Every bit of progress made is just sanding down the edges a bit.

But the investigations matter. Biden’s corruption? Not so much, except in the abstract sense that the public has a right to know and Biden should be exposed. But Biden will not be removed from office, and I doubt even Hunter will go to jail, no less Joe.

But getting to the bottom of COVID and the weaponization of government matter, a lot. What is at stake is the very soul of our Republic, and we need to get the public on our side. This is the fight against creeping totalitarianism. And if a new Speaker gets into that position by abandoning or neutering those investigations he will have sacrificed our best chance to save the country in order to make minor changes to the budget.

I don’t think Gaetz was wrong in what he desired–he has a point. I think, though, that he likely made things worse by demanding it. He may even have led the charge to make the results in the House move to the Left by making the next Speaker dependent on Democrat votes to stay in power.

Pretty sure Gaetz doesn’t want that. Losing spectacularly and gloriously is worse than fighting to a stalemate. Chances are that Gaetz will have the chance to do the former–and we will also pay the price. I hope not, but I worry that will be true.

He wont–he can’t–get what he demands, because the power to deliver it isn’t there. If McCarthy had 240 votes he could have delivered it, but not with 221. He didn’t even have the votes to retain his position, and delivering policy changes requires more votes than that.

Gaetz and company were demanding what can’t be given right now: conservative governance. I want that too. But that option isn’t on the table with Schumer and Biden in office. The investigations might help remove them and make progress possible.

Vacating the Speaker’s Chair made that end goal harder. It helps the Democrats and harms the conservative movement. Not because McCarthy was the man to move us forward, but because we needed somebody to hold things together until we have a chance to move things forward–a chance that doesn’t exist right now.

Gaetz made a point–a pretty good point–and in doing so he likely made things worse for the country and the Republican Party–but I repeat myself. If every member of the Republican Party were a member of the Freedom Caucus they would have no more power than they do today, and I guarantee that the outcomes would change by only a bit.

It is the outcomes that matter–not just now, but especially for the future. The stakes are high, and Gaetz went all-in holding just a pair of 3s.

That was a bad bet.