Blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines was not an easy task. The pipeline itself was designed to withstand a lot of punishment, being made of steel surrounded by a layer of concrete. It was fairly deep underwater, and it took military-grade explosives to accomplish the task.

Nord Stream was no longer delivering gas to Western Europe, but it was still pressurized at the time, leading to an enormous plume of natural gas escaping. If you haven’t seen those pictures yet you were likely on a hiking trip in Antarctica.

The basic facts of what happened aren’t disputed: somebody–a very sophisticated somebody with access to significant resources and intelligence, and highly skilled in diving and explosives–blew up the pipelines. The only question was who?

Breaking News: A pro-Ukrainian group may have carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggested. https://t.co/KFoOp9RyZk

— The New York Times (@nytimes) March 7, 2023

The New York Times published a story a few hours ago that is basically a press release from the US intelligence community, floating the explanation that “a pro-Ukrainian group” did the deed. Nobody is named, and the only substantive claim buried in all the word salad served up to us is that the Ukrainian government is likely not involved. Taking the Times and the “leakers” at their word, that leaves about 8 billion other people who it could be.

Not me, I assure you. It wasn’t me.

WASHINGTON — New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.

U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials.

The brazen attack on the natural gas pipelines, which link Russia to Western Europe, fueled public speculation about who was to blame, from Moscow to Kyiv and London to Washington, and it has remained one of the most consequential unsolved mysteries of Russia’s year-old war in Ukraine.

I suspect it wasn’t you either, and most Russians probably didn’t have a motive. Nor, I suspect, Alex Jones. He doesn’t seem the type.

But beyond that, the Times report really tells us nothing and leaves many more questions than it answers. Such as, perhaps, was that pro-Ukrainian group affiliated in any way with the U.S. or NATO.

U.S. officials said there was much they did not know about the perpetrators and their affiliations. The review of newly collected intelligence suggests they were opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, but does not specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation. U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains. They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it, leaving open the possibility that the operation might have been conducted off the books by a proxy force with connections to the Ukrainian government or its security services.

Seymor Hersh’s recent bombshell reignited the speculation that the U.S. committed the act of sabotage claims that the US committed the act, and you can read his report here. His report is pretty detailed and isn’t unbelievable, but lots of smart people are skeptical. I am utterly agnostic myself. It’s plausible, and there is plenty of evidence that the US had the motive, means, and opportunity. The former foreign minister of Poland actually thanked President Biden publicly for taking the pipeline out, so it is hardly a weird conspiracy theory to suggest the possibility.

Early last year, President Biden, after meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany at the White House, said Mr. Putin’s decision about whether to attack Ukraine would determine the fate of Nord Stream 2. “If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Mr. Biden said. “We will bring an end to it.”

When asked exactly how that would be accomplished, Mr. Biden cryptically said, “I promise you we’ll be able to do it.”

Once Russia had invaded the US warned European countries that the pipelines were targets for sabotage. None of this proves anything other than the fact that the US had a motive and was warning our allies that sabotage could happen; certainly, it doesn’t prove that the US actually carried out Biden’s threat to bring the pipeline to an end through kinetic means.

Still, some wags have already noted that the US government fits the description of being “a pro-Ukrainian group,” and it’s not like there are many such groups out there with the means to carry this out.

The explosives were most likely planted with the help of experienced divers who did not appear to be working for military or intelligence services, U.S. officials who have reviewed the new intelligence said. But it is possible that the perpetrators received specialized government training in the past.

Officials said there were still enormous gaps in what U.S. spy agencies and their European partners knew about what transpired. But officials said it might constitute the first significant lead to emerge from several closely guarded investigations, the conclusions of which could have profound implications for the coalition supporting Ukraine.

Any suggestion of Ukrainian involvement, whether direct or indirect, could upset the delicate relationship between Ukraine and Germany, souring support among a German public that has swallowed high energy prices in the name of solidarity.

Germany has not swallowed high energy prices in the name of solidarity; it has done so under enormous pressure from the United States. Germany hates this war and has from the beginning because there was no way that they wouldn’t wind up paying high prices for natural gas. If the US was worried that this would impede German support for the war in any way that matters the intelligence officials wouldn’t be blabbing about it.

These leaks come from the highest level of the government. Because the Times’ sources are at the highest levels of government. The top dogs want this out there for some reason.

The US government has strenuously denied any involvement in the sabotage; or, rather, denied that the White House was involved directly. Their denial opens the possibility that some non-governmental actors did so on behalf of US policy. It is difficult to fully parse the meaning of denials like this:

U.S. officials say Mr. Biden and his top aides did not authorize a mission to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines, and they say there was no U.S. involvement.

We have all been trained by spy novels and movies to believe that intelligence agencies are very concerned about “deniability” when it comes to some sensitive intelligence operations, but I have no direct experience in that world so I couldn’t tell you whether that is Tom Clancy fanciful speculation or actual practice. I suspect it is some of each.

The only thing we know for sure after wading through the Times’ blockbuster report is…they devoted three top reporters to write a story that tells us almost nothing of substance. A pro-Ukraine group blew up the pipeline?

Who could have guessed?