The more the merrier?

(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

Former Governor Larry Hogan has been toying with the idea of running for president.

Perhaps I, too, should throw my hat into the ring? After all, I have about as much chance as Hogan to get the nomination. You, too, should join the scrum should you so desire.

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As Hogan said on Fox News, the more the merrier.

Hogan’s claim to fame is quite different from others whose names are floated as possible candidates. Nikki Haley has a strong conservative record including her time as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under Donald Trump. Mike Pompeo was an excellent Secretary of State in Trump’s administration.

While neither has Trump’s strengths as a candidate, they don’t share his many weaknesses either. They are smart, relatively sober, conservative warriors with a track record of appealing to Republicans from center-right to very right.

Nothing needs to be said about the true elephant in the room: Ron DeSantis. He is everybody’s favorite current alternative to Trump, although frontrunners for a nomination often stumble out of the gate. Remember Scott Walker? Lots of us thought he was a contender until the campaign saw him implode.

Not that I think DeSantis will face a Walker-like implosion, but anything can happen. I think he has a great shot at being the nominee.

But Hogan? He isn’t likely to get much beyond the starting gate, and by that, I am not implying anything about his weight.

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First of all, who outside Maryland has even heard of Hogan? I had to look him up, despite his having been one of the most popular governors in the country. I was aware he was alive, in the sense that I knew his name, but not much more. His name ID has been mostly driven by having been a rare never-Trumper who actually remained a Republican.

You have to respect that and I do.

It’s not that Hogan doesn’t have a political case to make; it’s just that the case is unpersuasive.

Larry Hogan managed to get elected in deep-blue Maryland not once, but twice as a Republican. Throughout his 2 terms, he remained amazingly popular and left the governor’s mansion only because he was term-limited. He easily could have won reelection. He even served as the Chair of the Republican Governor’s association in 2019 and 2020.

Sounds impressive. He proved his political bona fides by winning against the odds, with an appeal that extends across the aisle. If that is all you know he sounds like Youngkin.

Yeah, but. Maryland has 2 Democrats for every Republican, so his ability to appeal across the aisle is indicative of something else: he’s not a conservative Republican, and Republicans want a conservative to be president.

While Trump is conducting a pillow fight against Ron DeSantis over COVID policies, he could actually land some punches with those attacks against Hogan. During the pandemic, Hogan acquired the nickname “Lockdown Larry” among his conservative critics. There’s simply no way a pandemic pusher will win the nomination in a Republican Party that is deeply skeptical about the policies imposed on the country during the worst of the pandemic.

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If Trump is vulnerable on those policies, imagine the trouble Hogan will have.

And, of course, as divided as the Party is becoming on Trump’s presidential prospects, there is no appetite for a Never-Trumper to replace the former president as the leader of the Party. None.

Most Never-Trumpers left the Party, and even Republicans who hope Trump goes away think of Never-Trumpers as traitors. Trump will drive that message home. It will be unfair to Hogan, as his split with Trump did not extend to turning his back on the Party. But this is politics, where fairness is not the highest virtue.

People looking for Trump alternatives aren’t looking for Trump opponents; they want the fight to go away, not carry on. Not to mention that almost every current Republican voted for Trump at least once, and most twice, so Hogan likely makes them feel insulted.

Trump alternatives in the presidential race are likely to have been former Trump loyalists who are striking out on their own. Trump will attack them as traitors, but that epithet is unlikely to stick. Trump may be supported by a plurality of Republicans at the moment, but that means most Republicans are open to alternatives.

Hogan, though? He really will get stuck with that label because, rightly or wrongly, he really did turn his back on the Trump voters.

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In 2016 Trump was able to win because his opposition never consolidated around one alternative. This time may be different, with a clear front-runner in DeSantis.

Yet there is a reason they play the game, even when the outcome seems preordained. Odds are only odds, not outcomes.

Nobody is going to hand victory to either Trump or DeSantis. They have to play the game and see who actually comes out on top.

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