We already know that the Democrats are totally screwed in the Midterms. They are in exactly the wrong place at the wrong time when it comes to the issues they care about, and they have totally blown a great opportunity to pass legislation that people really might want.
The have the House, the Senate, and the White House. They essentially own the MSM, the education system from K-Graduate School, and the entertainment industry.
But they have blown up the country, and by doing so they have completely blown their chances to win in 2022 and probably 2024.
But I think the true scale of the damage Joe Biden’s radical policies have done to his party are grossly underestimated by most commentators. Biden hasn’t screwed the Democrats’ electoral chances in the short term; he has succeeded in blowing up the entire Democrat coalition and may have doomed Democrats to the political wilderness for a decade or more.
No, I am not kidding, and I am not engaged in wishful thinking. Democrats will eventually win and Republicans lose, but not until the Republicans blow it. The fate of the Democrat Party is now in the hands of Republicans.
Now Republican politicians are famously stupid. The old joke is that Americans have a choice between the evil party and the stupid party. You know which is which. They could blow it quickly. But more likely than not Democrats will have to start from ground zero and rebuild a new coalition that can take them to the White House, because you can put a fork in the current one. It is dead.
Let’s look at the evidence:
DEMOGRAPHICS:
Republicans have in recent decades been ideologically driven, while Democrats have been identity driven. The Republican coalition consists of an uncomfortable mix of social and fiscal conservatives along with a large group of America First! types. Ideas–and by that I don’t mean intellectual arguments per se–animate Republicans. It is a party that actually could define itself by a “we believe” sign, but Republicans don’t go in for that sort of thing as Democrats do. For every Republican bumper sticker there are 50 on Democrat cars.
Democrats, on the other hand, do go in for the “we believe” signs, but the reality is that their beliefs are about the value of certain groups, not ideas or concepts. They have slogans–tens of them–but they are utterly platitudinous and obvious propaganda. What Democrats really believe is that the population should be sliced and diced into identity groups and have benefits doled out based upon identity. A “we believe the science” slogan just means “comply.” A Democrat who “believes the science” will in the next breath assert that we must respect “Indigenous medicine” and that children can be “two spirit.”
So if identity is the core of Democrat ideology, what groups do Democrats need to win?
College educated whites, white suburban women, blacks, and hispanics. If they don’t run up the scoreboard with these groups they are doomed. Utterly, completely, and irrevocably doomed.
It turns out that the constituency of Indigenous medicine men, two-spirited children, transgender psychopaths, and porn-in-school voters is rather slim. Without a solid electoral base upon which to build, Democrats cannot win. Can’t be done. At least not without a Republican completely screwing the pooch.
DEMOCRAT COALITION BREAKUP:
Democrats aren’t going to lose the college educated whites demographic any time soon because they seem to like associating with the transgender two-spirits. Many of them even watch The View and find Stephen Colbert funny enough to watch. They live comfortable lives unendangered by Democrat screw ups (so far), and they simply love virtue signaling to each other.
They even think Beto O’Rourke and Charlie Crist are smart and charismatic. Go figure.
But the other pillars of support that hold up the Democrat electoral structure? Each is in danger of fracturing.
White suburban women care about feeding their family and their children’s education, and for a long time trusted the Democrats to look out for their interests. They got burned, and their allegiance to the party is weakened or even shattered. Mask mandates, school closures, inflation, the energy crunch, porn in schools–none of this appeals. Most of these women might be holding their noses as they vote for Republicans, but many of them will anyway. It is a matter of family survival, and honestly few of them want to get an abortion themselves. They like the “freedom” in the abstract, but they have actual children to feed.
Blacks? They aren’t exactly moving away from Democrats in large numbers, but they feel similarly burned by the Democrats because suddenly they are second class citizens in the coalition, behind the oppressed who are higher up the intersectional oppression scale. If you are a working class black person suffering under Biden, how could you appreciate the Democrats’ obsession with men pretending to be little girls? It’s insane, and insulting.
Hispanics? They are leaving the Democrats in droves, and most of those leaving will be hard to lure back. Hispanics were lured into supporting Democrats because they thought Democrats cared about them, not because they were ever liberal. They aren’t. It was a purely transactional relationship, and the Democrats defrauded them and they know it. Few hispanic immigrants came to the United States to ensure that drag queens could gyrate in front of their children while reading pornography, and they didn’t come here to get poorer. The Atlantic has a good piece on the defection of Hispanics from the Democrats, and I recommend reading it.
Yet that is what the Democrats are offering. Hispanics aren’t buying the product, and kinda like the modern Republican Party. The agenda makes sense–even on immigration.
IF THE PILLARS CRACK, THE STRUCTURE CANNOT LONG SURVIVE:
Democrats were lured into believing that their dominance would be guaranteed because they were going to represent “the coalition of the ascendant.” As the population of minorities exploded and the college educated became more numerous and more liberal by the day there was simply no way they could lose.
Ruy Teixeira and the journalist John B. Judis wrote a book called The Emerging Democratic Majority made the argument, and the Democrats used it as a blueprint for victory. It worked, sorta, to elect Barack Obama and even Joe Biden. At least if you are not one of those truly evil democracy destroying fascist Nazi ULTRA-MEGA-MAGA election deniers. <insert more hyperbolic insults here>
Democrats, ironically, have been most hurt by the fact that while their coalition is not built upon a coherent set of ideas, their governing philosophy has been recently. Obama was relatively savvy politically–at least rhetorically. He pushed too far ideologically, but he managed to hold the coalition together through sheer force of charisma. And more than a little inertia among the voters. With an assist from Mitt Romney, who has proven to be a horrible politician.
Biden doesn’t have the rhetorical chops, and he has taken the brakes off the ideological race car on one of the windiest mountain roads. He has been implementing a truly radical agenda that completely ignores the beliefs and interests of the very constituency that elected him, and in doing so has taken a sledgehammer to the pillars of his coalition.
The cracks he has created are serious, long-lasting, and probably irreparable. White women may drift back if conditions improve, but I suspect that they won’t for 2-4 years. Inflation is tough to tackle, he is making the energy crunch worse not better (there is only so much oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), and the Fed is manufacturing a deep recession to kill off inflation. I suspect 2024 will be brutal for the Dems.
If so, this coalition is toast. Two cycles in a row of defections is one cycle too many. It is one thing to punish the party for incompetence, it is another to enthusiastically pull the lever for DeSantis or even unenthusiastically for Trump. Either would be a complete rejection of the Biden/Democrat agenda.
Poof. Or rather BOOM! No more Democrat power for a long time.
My assessment is that Democrats have been whistling past the graveyard this election cycle. First hoping that the Dobbs abortion decision would save them, and now hoping this is a speed bump along the road to ascendance. Neither is likely true.
Democrats will get crushed this year. Probably in 2024. And lose a shot at power for 10-15 years.
Am I right? Who knows. It will be two years until the first test of this hypothesis, and perhaps 10 until we know for sure. And none of you will remember I wrote this, so I am safe to do so.
