Yes, I’m sure this is poll is an outlier but it’s still worth a look:
The Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll of 255 likely Democratic primary voters shows that Buttigieg, supported by 25 percent, now holds a 10 percentage point lead over former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who are tied for second at 15 percent. Buttigieg is substantially ahead of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is in fourth place at 9 percent.
Here’s Nate Silver’s reaction:
Buttigieg is clearly on an upward trajectory but that New Hampshire poll you're all tweeting about has a sample size of only 255 voters.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 19, 2019
So, no, Buttigieg probably isn’t leading in New Hampshire by double digits at this point but he has been solidly in fourth place in several recent polls. And the Quinnipiac poll of New Hampshire a week ago had him in third place, beating Bernie Sanders by a point. And with the addition of the St. Anselm poll to its average, Real Clear Politics now has him edging out Sanders as well.
This results of this New Hampshire poll are pretty similar to a CNN poll of Iowa which had Buttigieg in the lead by 9 points. You don’t need to watch all 7 minutes of this clip, but stick with it for at least a minute when John King explains that Buttigieg is surging in Iowa, at least partly, because voters prefer his more moderate approach to that of the more progressive candidates.
Again, the CNN poll may be an outlier but the Buttigieg-mentum is real. This CBS poll also found him surging in Iowa:
Finally, the St. Anselm poll also had some interesting findings regarding a few candidates who are considering entering the race:
Democratic voters also indicated they are satisfied with the current field of candidates. The poll showed that 77 percent believe former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg should not run, while 62 percent would discourage former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick from running and 91 percent would discourage 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton from running again.
Now that’s a poll result I can believe in.