The special election for Mike Pompeo’s seat in Kansas will be decided tonight. Pompeo was selected by President Trump to run the CIA so now we have a contest between Republican Ron Estes and Democrat James Thompson.

As Andrew Malcolm wrote earlier today, this is a district that leans decidedly red. Pompeo was re-elected by a 31-points margin last year (Trump won by 27). However, the declining popularity of President Trump has some Democrats hopeful ‘The Resistance’ can score a surprise victory. Republicans have responded by money into the district.

With polls closed, results are starting to trickle in. Scroll down for the latest.

9:15 pm eastern: Thompson is off to an early lead thanks to returns from Witchita, which leans Democratic. Decision Desk HQ seems to be well ahead of everyone else providing results. With 19.4% reporting, they show Thompon leading with 22,188 votes to 18,150 votes for Estes.

9:35 pm: Race is tightening significantly now. With 34.6% reporting Thompson leads 28,658 to 27,054:

Whoa..Butler County just shoved the votes over big time for Estes. Thompson lead now down to 1,587, 3 point race now https://t.co/2I8qbokhQN

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) April 12, 2017

9:46 pm: NY Times has 47% reporting and Estes has taken a narrow lead. Estes 30,708-Thompson 30,590.

9:55 pm: While we wait for more results here’s an ad Ron Estes put out a couple weeks ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HMh_BIpunM

And here’s an ad from Thompson which shows why he’s competitive in a red Kansas district. He’s not running against Trump in this ad, he’s borrowing some of Trump’s themes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0_30s2T0no

10:04 pm: Decision Desk HQ is still slightly ahead of the NY Times publishing results. Currently DDHQ shows 63.6 reporting and Estes leads 38,241 to 35,497.

Estes climbing, 4.2% lead, 3100 vote lead

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) April 12, 2017

10:18 pm: DDHQ calls it for Estes.

We are calling #KS04 for Ron Estes. Sedgwick keeps falling for Thompson. No ground to make it up. https://t.co/2I8qbokhQN

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) April 12, 2017

10:22 pm: NY Times with 78% reporting shows Estes leads 52.5% to 45.8%.

10:40 pm: NY Times has 88% reporting. Estes leads 52% to 46.3%.

Emerging story in #KS04: energized Ds & disaffected Rs in the population center (Wichita) show up early. But R regulars save day on E Day

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) April 12, 2017

A 20-point swing towards Democrats in KS-4 during Trump’s first 100 days — a.k.a. his honeymoon — is a political earthquake

— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) April 12, 2017

10:46 pm: The Associated Press calls the race for Estes.

BREAKING: Republican Ron Estes wins Kansas special House election to replace GOP's Mike Pompeo, named Trump's CIA director.

— The Associated Press (@AP) April 12, 2017

The NY Times has also called the race.

11:08 pm: House Speaker Paul Ryan issues a statement congratulating Estes.

“I’m glad to welcome Ron Estes to the 115th Congress and I look forward to working with him to solve the challenges facing our country.

“Ron has been deeply involved in his community for years and I’m confident he will be a strong voice for Kansas’ 4th Congressional District in Washington, D.C. Whether in the manufacturing industry or in public office, Ron has always worked to improve efficiency and find savings. Kansans are fortunate to have this committed public servant representing them in Congress and I’d like to offer my full congratulations to Ron and his entire family on his victory.”

It looks like the final tally is going to have Estes up about 6 points. That’s not great in a district Trump won by 27. Then again, Thompson presented himself to voters (see the ads above) as a gun owner concerned about some of Trump’s issues. We’ll see if that translates to other Democrats. The next special election takes place in Georgia next Tuesday to fill the seat left open when Tom Price became HHS Secretary.