Results for AZ, NM, NV and UT

Update: CNN calls Arizona for Trump. Also, if you haven’t heard, the AP, NY Times and Fox News have all called the race for Trump.

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Update: Hillary wins Nevada.

Update: AP calls Nevada Senate seat for Catherine Cortez Masto.

Update: Trump wins Utah.

Update: Fox News calls New Mexico for Hillary.

Update: Fox News has called the Arizona Senate race for John McCain.

[End update]

It will be a while before we have any results in these three states but I’ll be updating for those who plan to stay up late. Polls close in Arizona and New Mexico at 9 pm eastern. Polls close in Nevada at 10 pm eastern.

Arizona: On the presidential side the latest polling average from Real Clear Politics have Trump up 4 points. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has the probability of Trump winning the state at 66.6 percent. The Senate race between John McCain and Ann Kirkpatrick was looking like it could be a close one earlier in the year but the current RCP average has McCain up by 10 points. FiveThirtyEight gives McCain a 98% chance of reelection. There really shouldn’t be any drama here for Republicans. If there is then the GOP is probably having a bad night.

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New Mexico: Hillary has had a consistent lead here (RCP has her at +5) and Obama won the state handily in the last two elections. Nate Silver says she has an 82.6% probability of winning so this should be an easy win for Clinton.

Nevada: Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012 but recent polls suggest a tight race this time. RCP has Trump up by a slim 0.8 points. However, it’s worth noting that the two most recent polls both show Clinton with a narrow lead. FiveThirtyEight sees Clinton with a slight advantage, finding she has a 58.3% chance of winning. The Senate race for the seat being vacated by Harry Reid is also looking tight. RCP’s average of polls has Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto leading Republican Joe Heck by 1.8 points. FiveThirtyEight puts the chance of a Cortez Masto victory at 60 percent. Of course we’ll probably have a very clear idea how the night is going long before polls close in Nevada at 10 pm eastern.

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David Strom 5:20 PM | April 19, 2024
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