Is this an outlier or a signal that voters have taken something away from the midterms that we didn’t predict? A new poll out from The Hill contains a bit of a surprise for those wondering about President Trump’s future prospects after a tumultuous election. Assuming these numbers hold up in future surveys, the President’s approval rating has ticked up to 47, getting dangerously close to having his head above water.
Roughly a week after the midterm elections, President Trump saw his approval rating increase to 47 percent according to a new American Barometer poll.
The survey, conducted by Hill.TV and the HarrisX polling company found that 23 percent of voters said they “strongly approved” of Trump, while 24 percent said they “somewhat” approved of him.
Fifty-three percent of voters said they disapproved of the president, with 37 percent saying they “strongly disapproved” and 17 percent saying they “somewhat disapproved.”
The latest American Barometer marks a two-point increase in Trump’s approval rating since before the midterms.
Even more interesting is the slight shrinkage in the “somewhat disapprove” numbers. We can assume that the 37% who “strongly disapprove” represent the progressive/Democratic base. That figure is pretty well locked in and they won’t be changing their minds, even if Donald Trump switches parties tomorrow and starts preaching Medicare For All. They’ve hated him since day one and they’re not about to change their stripes now.
But that other 17% are part of the persuadable voters who aren’t wild about the President but might be convinced otherwise if things start going a bit better. The same goes for the 24% who “somewhat approve” but could change their minds if they things are going downhill over the second half of Trump’s first term.
Even if you think the raw number is an outlier, it may still be part of a trend that’s getting harder to deny. If you look at the RCP listing you’ll see that while Trump’s average is 43, polls from the same outfits are, in many cases, moving up this month. The Economist/YouGov survey has him up a point since their survey from the week before the election. The NBC News/Wall St. Journal poll has him creeping up a point (46) from their last sample.
I recall reading an article recently speculating that losing the House might actually be good for Trump. I didn’t pay much attention to it at the time because the idea sounded a bit “out there.” But at this point, I’m starting to reconsider. I wonder if there are some people who are more comfortable with Donald Trump if they know that there’s more of a check on his power with control of the legislative branch split between the parties. Something to consider, anyway.