By now, this should surprise no one. Our partners at Decision Desk HQ have looked at the dwindling prospects for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania after Joe Biden took a 6,000-vote lead this morning in the late ballot counts in Philadelphia. With almost all other counties having tallied up, their analysis concludes that Biden won the Keystone State … and with it the presidency.

Here’s the 270towin.com map on their calls:


Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Even without Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada, Pennsylvania gives Biden the win with 273 Electoral College votes. If Trump wins the remaining states, the best he can do is 265. With Nevada looking pretty solid for Biden at the moment and Georgia sliding his way, Biden will likely get at least 295 electors; if he holds on in Arizona, he’ll get 306 — the same amount Trump won in 2016.

We’ll have more on this as the day wears on, of course, including reaction from both camps and analysis of the next steps. This is still not official; states have to certify results, and Trump will demand recanvasses and recounts along the way. But it’s getting tougher and tougher to see how this flips back to a Trump win.