The pollster who made his bones in the 2016 election has begun issuing his final assessments in key battleground states. Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly shows essentially margin of error races in three key battleground states, with Donald Trump leading in two of them — Michigan and Florida. The third, Nevada, appears to be sticking with Biden thus far.
The interesting part of these calls is that the variance on all these from polling norms are not terribly significant, except possibly in Michigan. Trafalgar has generally scored Trump higher in polling than its competitors, both in 2016 and in this cycle. Allahpundit remarked two weeks ago that the polling world would get turned upside down if Cahaly ends up being right in a second cycle. What this shows is just how close these calls really are: