Could Donald Trump win the 2016 election by expanding the GOP’s reach into Hispanic and African-American communities? Cook Political Report editor David Wasserman pointed out yesterday on MSNBC’s Morning Joe that polling suggests that minority voters might be giving the president a second look, and that could spell trouble for Joe Biden. The Democratic nominee hasn’t kept pace thus far with Hillary Clinton’s polling in 2016 among non-white voters, Wasserman points out, and that gives Trump an edge.
On the other hand, Wasserman points out, Biden’s doing better than Hillary among non-minority voters — and that might mean bigger trouble for Trump:
“The silver lining for Donald Trump, here, is that he’s doing better with nonwhites than he was doing in 2016,” Wasserman said during a panel on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “He’s winning on average 9 percent of the Black vote in these polls compared to 5 percent in his pre-election polls in 2016. And the Hispanic vote, Joe Biden is ahead 56 percent to 31 percent. The final polls in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 61 percent to 23 percent. So, that’s a pretty decent number for Trump among Hispanics that I think is attributable to traditional Republican, Hispanic voters, including, potentially, Cubans, coming back to the Republican fold.”
However, Wasserman said, Trump has not been performing as well among white voters as he did during his first campaign, particularly those who are older.
“At least in Florida, what seems to be offsetting that, for now, is Joe Biden’s strong performance among white seniors which also helps him in Arizona,” he said. He added that Biden’s performance among white voters who were college educated meant Omaha, Nebraska represented his “best shot at flipping any piece of Trump real estate on the map.”
Wasserman said his numbers came from averaging “eight major live-interview polls … in mid-to-late August versus the same polls in June or July.”