In the midst of all the crises we currently face, today’s Emerson poll out of Montana feels almost like a quaint look at electoral politics. Democrats put a lot of pressure on former governor Steve Bullock to run against incumbent Republican Steve Daines in the Senate race this year, after all but ignoring the popular Democrat in the presidential primary. They hoped to ride Bullock’s substantial cross-aisle appeal to flip the seat in Montana and control in the upper chamber itself.
So far the polling has been thin, but Emerson suggests that the strategy isn’t working:
The US Senate race appears competitive with incumbent Republican Steve Daines leading with 50% support. His Democratic opponent, Governor Steve Bullock. is at 44%. Of the remaining voters, 5% find themselves undecided. Independents are breaking for Bullock, with 53% support.
Kimball points out that “Montana could be a bellwether of sorts to see if Gov. Bullock can buck the trend of 2016 when Trump states went Republican in Senate races while Clinton states went Democratic”.