In this case, the phrase “Republican pollster” might not serve as much as a qualifier as it might seem. Axios takes note of the latest survey of swing states from Firehouse Strategies, a GOP-linked political strategy firm, and Optimus because Firehouse sent up a flare three months ago that Donald Trump was struggling in key states that he needs to hold.
Their mid-September survey didn’t offer much hope that Trump could hold the heartland:
Overall, Trump continues to struggle in these three states. He trails Biden in all three states, and only leads Warren and Sanders in Michigan. His approval rating is also underwater by 4 points in Michigan, 9 points in Pennsylvania, and 12 points in Wisconsin. There seems to be more upside for the Democrats than Trump at the moment, though with over a year left, the landscape can change drastically between now and election day, as it did in 2016. …
In Wisconsin, we find all three candidates with a lead over Trump, though still within the margin of error. Sanders has the largest lead at +6, followed by Biden at +2 and Warren at +1. Among independents/others, Sanders leads Trump by 9 points. Warren trails Trump by 1 among this group, and Biden leads by only 2.
In Michigan, Biden fares the best among the three candidates, the only one of the three with a lead (+4), though also within the margin of error. We find Warren and Sanders both trailing Trump, by 2 and 3 points respectively. Interestingly, the gender gap is larger with a Biden-Trump matchup than with a Warren-Trump matchup. Biden leads by 14 points among females and Trump leads by 12 among males, while Warren leads by 8 among females and Trump leads by 12 among males. Sanders leads females by 6, while Trump leads by 13 among males in that matchup.
In Pennsylvania, President Trump is currently losing in head-to-head matchups against each of the three Democratic frontrunners. Trump performs the worst against Biden, where the Scranton-native enjoys a lead of 4 percentage points. Against Warren and Sanders, Trump is down 2 percentage points to each.