For the first time in almost a year, the ADP Employment Report shows above-200K growth in private-sector job creation. November’s addition of 215,000 in the series follows two straight months of job growth at 185,000, which worked out roughly similar to the aggregate job-addition numbers from BLS:
Private sector employment increased by 215,000 jobs from October to November, according to the November ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP® , a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
Most of the gain was in the service industry, which is to be expected in the last quarter of the year. Goods-producing jobs rose too:
Goods-producing employment rose by 40,000 jobs in November, up from 29,000 in October. Both construction and manufacturing payrolls added 18,000 jobs apiece. The gain for manufacturing was the largest since early 2012.
Service-providing industries added 176,000 jobs in November, up from 156,000 in October. This was the largest gain in the service sector in a year. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, trade/transportation/utilities added the most jobs with 45,000 over the month. Professional/business services employment rose by 38,000, while financial activities added 5,000 jobs.
“According to ADP National Employment Report findings, the U.S. private sector added 215,000 jobs during November making it the strongest month for job growth in 2013,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “It’s an encouraging sign as we head toward the new year.”
It’s the best month since last November’s 276,000 jobs-added result, but it’s still not enough to move the needle much on real unemployment. The US economy has to add 150,000 jobs a month to keep up with population growth, so even if this number matches the BLS figure coming on Friday, we’re only looking at a net 65,000 gain against population growth. At that rate, it would take more than six years to make up for just half of the 10.6 million people who have left the workforce since the technical recovery began in June 2009.
Nevertheless, CNBC’s pretty stoked about these results, mostly due to low expectations:
Private sector job creation surged in November, with ADP reporting 215,000 new jobs in a number that could put some heat on the Federal Reserve to begin reducing its monthly stimulus.
Economists expected ADP to report the private sector created 173,000 new jobs in November.
“This feels pretty good,” Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, which assists ADP in putting together the monthly report, said on CNBC. “I’m surprised at how well the job market held up in the face of what happened in Washington.”
Economists had expected the government shutdown in early October to put pressure on the job market, but that has not shown up in any of the data released since then.
There’s no doubt that 215K beats 173K, especially for the 42,000 people who have jobs that the difference represents. Overall, though, this is still a stagnation figure, and it’s probably going to have no impact on the 36-year low in the civilian workforce participation rate that actually measures employment in the context of population.