Perhaps the decision to increase troops is not quite as politically fraught as some might have thought. Gallup surveyed over 1,000 adults on the question, and surprisingly, almost a majority of them supported some form of troop increase for Afghanistan. In fact, combined with those who would leave troop levels static, it amounts to a mandate to stay and fight:
Americans over the last two weeks have become slightly more likely to favor sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, and slightly less likely to favor a reduction in forces. At this point, 47% of Americans would advise President Obama to increase the number of U.S. troops — either by the roughly 40,000 recommended by the commanding general in Afghanistan or by a smaller amount — while 39% would advise Obama to reduce the number of troops. Another 9% would opt to leave troop levels as they are, while 5% have no opinion.
The question in the Nov. 20-22 USA Today/Gallup poll gives respondents four choices and asks them to indicate which action they would most like to see President Obama take.
Asked the same question earlier in November, Americans tilted toward the troop-reduction option over the troop-increase option, 44% to 42%. Now, the data tilt in the other direction. Those who want a troop increase outnumber those who want a reduction, 47% to 39%.
The long wait for a decision by Obama may have had some salutary effect. As it became more clear that the decision really meant a go/no go on the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, there appears to have been a shift in thinking on the resourcing issue. Perhaps, too, as the administration sent out trial balloons on various levels on increase, it became clear that some sort of increase would happen, and people began to get comfortable with the idea.
It’s still a political problem, however. Republicans overwhelmingly want to increase troop levels (65%), but not independents, and especially not Democrats. Independents are roughly split between increasing (36%) and decreasing (37%). Fifty-seven percent of Democrats want troop reductions, though, while only 29% will countenance any kind of increase at all.
If Obama increases the troops and all goes well, he will find those numbers strengthening. If he fumbles the war after increasing the troops, he may have a real problem with independents on competency and Democrats on ideology. However, the trend at the moment seems to be at the President’s back for his expected troop increase.
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