You’re within your rights to never trust another political survey after the fiasco of the 2020 election but I’ll give you two reasons to make an exception in this case. One: For whatever weird reason, the polls in Georgia were actually pretty close to the mark. The final RCP average had Trump winning the state by a single point. In reality, Biden won by 0.3 percent. The final FiveThirtyEight weighted average did even better, seeing Biden victorious by 1.1 points. Both averages were within 1.3 points of the actual result, in other words — quite good, and verrrry different from the disastrous polling in the midwest.
Two: InsiderAdvantage, the pollster responsible for today’s numbers, is Republican-leaning. They did reasonably well in Georgia (their final poll had Trump up two) and *very* well in Michigan, where they had Biden ahead by two points while most competitors saw him waltzing away with the state to the tune of seven or eight. Biden won by 2.7 points. IA has earned a little benefit of the doubt.
I feel surprised, although I shouldn’t, that they have both Georgia runoffs as pure toss-ups right now, with Raphael Warnock slightly ahead of Kelly Loeffler. It’s Warnock 49/48, says InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery, while David Perdue and Jon Ossoff are deadlocked at 49.