Iowa polls are worth extra attention over the final 13 days because of how easily Trump won there four years ago. The state went blue for Obama by nearly six points in 2012 but in 2016 Trump crushed it, winning by nearly 10. If there’s to be a late trend nationally back towards him in the final stage of the race, we’d expect to see it start showing up in a state that broke strongly for him before. All Trump voters there need to do is come home.
If we’re down to the wire and they’re not coming home, odds are they’re not coming home in more important battlegrounds either. Which is to say, I think it’s less important who’s winning in Iowa than simply whether the race is tightening. If it isn’t, that portends a Biden presidency. If it is, then things are getting interesting.
There’ll be two polls of Iowa today, with one coming later this afternoon from the Times. Monmouth’s is already out, though, and it doesn’t show a trend towards Trump. Just the opposite: