Just a reminder that the big vote is tomorrow night and that the fallout from the results is apt to be exceptionally nasty no matter what happens. How nasty? Go read this post from July 11 in which Kobach fan Ann Coulter was left pleading for a Democratic victory over Mitch McConnell this November as payback for his attempt to sink Kobach in Kansas.
Oddly, there haven’t been many polls of the race despite the potential national implications of the outcome. Rep. Roger Marshall is the establishment favorite, the “electable” choice in a red state that’s normally a walkover for the GOP. Kobach is the populist choice, deemed unelectable because he managed to lose the gubernatorial race there to a Democrat in 2018. The GOP establishment dislikes Kobach’s border-hawkery and fears that he’s a weak hand to play in a national climate that strongly favors Democrats right now. If Kansas flips because Kobach once again can’t beat a Democrat statewide, it could be a majority-maker for Chuck Schumer.
The problem is that the race has turned so acidic that there are apt to be hard feelings among supporters of whichever candidate loses. Kobach’s fans will understandably resent McConnell and the GOP Super PACs attacking their guy at the establishment’s behest; Marshall backers will resent Kobach for having secured a victory with help from Democratic organizations. (More on that in a minute.) Having some meaningful number of Republicans boycott the Senate race because they believe their candidate was a victim of dirty pool is an ominous possibility in a year when Trump reportedly isn’t killing it in Kansas against Biden either.