Via the Caller, pollster Kellyanne Conway surveys the state of the “war on women” in Texas: “Women get exhausted with women candidates who say they are pro-woman and then run on issues that real women don’t say are most important to them.”
The favorability numbers are even starker. Among women, Abbott scores 35/27 while Davis clocks in at … 32/46. That’s basically identical to her 33/48 favorability among men. She ran on her biography, and this is where it got her.
This isn’t the only core constituency with whom she’s underperforming, though. If that earlier post about the CIS study on immigration bummed you out, here’s a ray of hope from Texas. All it takes to narrow the margin among Latinos in a red state is a terrible Democratic candidate who’s famous as an abortion warrior:
Even a bad Democrat is good enough to lead among Latinos in a conservative stronghold, but to scare Abbott she’d need to be somewhere around +30, not +10. There was speculation after she lost some of the heavily Latino southern counties to her no-name primary opponent that her abortion record had alienated some Catholic voters. These numbers will keep that theory alive.
It’s not all good news, though. Here’s a warning from the Ghost of Elections Future:
It’s true nationally and also true here — younger voters lean left. To some extent, though, the age split is a function of the state’s racial split: There are more Latinos under age 40 in Texas than there are whites, and the disparity is more pronounced among younger children (in fact, a majority of Texas public-school students are Latino). If a reliably Democratic group is overrepresented in a demographic that’s already more inclined to prefer Dems, having come of age when the country was souring on Bush and embracing Hopenchange, then yeah, even Wendy Davis will benefit. Not enough to win the election, but check back in 10 years and see how Governor Abbott’s numbers look then.