Or, more precisely, is he less unelectable? It’s a simple math problem: Would the net gain in independent votes exceed the net loss in evangelical votes in swing states if Rudy was the nominee? Possible answer: Given the long, long odds we face next year, what exactly is to be gained with a “safe” pick like Fred? He’ll bankably deliver 46-47% just by being his party’s nominee and won’t have to worry about any third-party challenges, but how likely is it that he’ll pull six out of 10 independents in a political climate that’s already leaning heavily Democratic? If you’re counting on Hillary hatred to win you the center, I think you’re underestimating how savvy she’ll be in the general in appealing to those voters. It makes more sense to pick someone who’ll appeal to those voters on your own side and then count on Hillary hatred to keep the Hillary-hatin’ Republican base from wandering off the reservation and over to a third-party. It’s a riskier strategy — if evangelicals decide en masse that they simply can’t in good conscience vote for Rudy then we’re looking at a debacle — but the upside’s a lot bigger too.

How lucky do you feel?