There’s incessant buzz about this today on social media and if you read yesterday’s post you know why.

The Antonovsky Bridge is a main artery in southern Ukraine across the Dnieper River through which Russia is moving supplies from Crimea into occupied Kherson province. The Ukrainians have launched a counteroffensive aimed at liberating the province; if they cut the main artery, suddenly Russian troops stationed there will have trouble being resupplied and reinforced. Newsweek has a nice summary of why freeing Kherson is so important to Zelensky and his team:

While Russia controls the south, Moscow has a land bridge from the Crimean peninsula all the way through occupied Donbas into Russia. A Ukrainian seizure of the south would derail this so-called “Novorossiya strategy.”

“Russia needs those territories to secure a land bridge to Crimea and an uninterrupted water supply to the peninsula,” Khara said. The occupying forces are also seeking to redirect the electricity supply from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant along the Dnieper river.

“Even if they take just the city of Kherson it will be a major blow to Russians,” said Zagorodnyuk. “If they take the whole region, it will cut Crimea from the rest of the troops.”

Until recently the bridge was too deep in Russian territory for Ukrainian artillery to reach it, and even if they could reach it, their shells weren’t accurate enough to ensure a direct hit on such a narrow target. The arrival of American HIMARS systems solved both of those problems. The HIMARS is extremely precise thanks to satellite guidance and enjoys a range of around 50 miles.

As of this morning, the artery appears to be cut.

Another video of the strikes. 2/https://t.co/Vpi9Slqaqc pic.twitter.com/VlfVEYXICe

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 27, 2022

Ukraine isn’t trying to destroy the bridge entirely, as their own troops will want to make use of it if the counteroffensive in Kherson succeeds. They want to disable it so that the Russians can’t move heavy loads across the span.

They appear to have achieved their goal:

⚡️Ukraine confirms strikes on key bridge in Kherson.

Ukraine hit Antonivsky Bridge in the occupied Kherson with artillery overnight, severely damaging it.

The bridge is one of the two crossings over the Dnipro River which Russia uses to transit military personnel and equipment. pic.twitter.com/lyGfnCrySN

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 27, 2022

And yet another video of the Antonovsky bridge which gives a better perspective of the impacts in relation to the bridge pic.twitter.com/APB6CRtOtr

— Reggie Meezer (@ReggieMeezer) July 27, 2022

There’s some question as to whether this image is accurate or has been faked. It does appear to show more severe damage than is visible in the clips above:

Russia🇷🇺 denies that Ukraine🇺🇦 successfully hit the Antanovskii Bridge, in occupied-Kherson,🇺🇦 with 🇺🇸HIMARS🇺🇸 several hours ago. However, this image seems to indicate that Ukraine🇺🇦 was successful!

Hitting the bridge prevents Russia🇷🇺 from moving to take other southern towns. pic.twitter.com/XCiBUlZapY

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) July 27, 2022

Either way, the bridge is likely no longer fit for military transport. There are other ways across the river, of course, but those ways are slow and laborious and would be even more vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. “If the photo is not fake, then the situation of the Kherson group is complicated,” said one Russian blogger in the aftermath of the bridge attack. “There are a number of bridges and crossings across the Dnieper, it is possible, in the end, to build a pontoon crossing, but taking into account the accuracy of hits, their fate will be about the same. The prospects for the Kherson People’s Republic are becoming somewhat uncertain.” The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are exultant:

Successful missile strikes on bridges over the Dnipro River by #UAarmy create an impossible dilemma for russian occupiers in #Kherson: retreat or be annihilated by #UAarmy. The choice is theirs.

— Defence of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 27, 2022

With the destruction of the E97 bridge, the Russian forces in Kherson are at the end of a long, vulnerable supply line. https://t.co/L8FBPsSaBr

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) July 27, 2022

Reportedly a railway bridge was also damaged in attacks last night, further limiting Russia’s options to resupply troops in Kherson. If they can’t do it from the south, they may have to divert resources from the battle in the east and try to do it from the Donbas. But that’s a reeeeally long supply line.

As for the status of the bridge, a structural engineer alleged last night that the damage he can see in videos means that it’s likely unusable until it’s properly repaired after the war. Fixing the concrete on top is no problem, as concrete can be patched. But the torn steel support underneath cannot; it needs to be a single integral piece. The Ukrainians may have done more damage to the bridge than they intended. But if forced to choose between knocking the bridge fully out of commission and leaving it intact, I’m sure they’d choose the former. The urgent priority is to starve out the Russians in Kherson in hopes that they’ll withdraw. Wrecking the bridge helps accomplish that.

Lawrence Freedman has been bullish on Ukraine’s chances in the war from the start and isn’t changing his mind now. But time is of the essence for the home team to advance in Kherson, he allows. This war is a contest of wills between the west and Russia, and the west will be tested sorely this winter when Europeans have to heat their homes without Russian gas. Now is the moment to capitalize on Russia’s “operational pause” in the Donbas and hit them hard in the south.

After months of being on the defensive they are anxious to get the Russians responding to their initiatives, especially while the general staff is still working out how to adapt to the damage being done to their supply lines and command chains. Richard Moore, the head of UK’s MI6, has expressed the view that Russia could be ‘about to run out of steam’ in Ukraine, as they find it increasingly ‘difficult to supply manpower material over the next few weeks. They will have to pause some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.’ He concluded that the ‘Ukrainians may have a window in which they can take advantage of what may turn out to be only a temporary Russian weakness.’…

Russia is … banking on economic distress leading to political upheavals in Europe and North that will weaken support for Ukraine. This is something of an endurance test because Russia’s economy is also showing signs of stress. The finances may be in good shape because of energy sales but there is not a lot to buy, and industrial production is steadily shutting down. Europe is also certainly hurting but for the moment this has not translated into wavering in its support for Ukraine…

And this is why the battle for Kherson is important. Ukraine is anxious to recover its territory and justify the confidence of its people that this war can be won. In the process it seeks to encourage its Western partners to keep the faith.

Inasmuch as the U.S. supplying Ukraine with HIMARS has paved the way for its army to go on offense, it might come to be seen in hindsight as a key inflection point in the war.

By the way, Freedman notes a recent estimate by an official at the Pentagon that Russia has now committed — no typo — 85 percent of its military to the war in Ukraine. There’s all-in and then there’s all-in. I’ll leave you with this thought, one to bear in mind the next time American isolationists start huffing and puffing about Russia’s supposed fear of NATO “encroachment.”

One thing we should be 100% clear about: this war has demonstrated that Russia does not care one iota about the prospect of a conventional attack from NATO. Like, zero. Zero zero zero. Russia has accepted complete conventional vulnerability during the course of this war. https://t.co/H8JwhKCyqY

— Robert Farley (@drfarls) July 27, 2022