Politicians and pundits are always looking for historical analogues as a crystal ball to predict the results of upcoming elections. For the 2026 midterms – now less than 15 months away – it may be helpful to wind back the clock all the way to the 1930s and the birth of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “New Deal” coalition.
Technically, this is President Donald Trump’s second term. But his party’s prospects in the national midterm elections next year, if we compare them to Roosevelt’s early midterm election performances, appear more likely to resemble 1934 (his first-term midterm) than 1938.
That 1934 midterm election was notable because the momentum from Roosevelt’s historic defeat of GOP President Herbert Hoover in 1932 carried over two years later as FDR and his administration were still in the early throes of combating the effects of the Great Depression.
This momentum kept going through to 1936 when Roosevelt was re-elected for a second term.
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