I’m trying to anticipate the official excuses that will be made to explain this strange yet obvious snub. The best will be when we’re told “He had a scheduling conflict.” For … four days? During the biggest conservative activist event in the U.S.?

In a year when he’s running for reelection?

When I checked the CPAC agenda yesterday, DeSantis’s only appearance was a conversation with host Matt Schlapp during the 1 p.m. hour on Thursday, the first day of the conference. That’s now been changed to “A Speech by Governor Ron DeSantis” but it’s still in the same garbage time slot, a moment when not all attendees will have arrived yet. And he’s only blocked off for 20 minutes.

This guy is polling second among Republicans for the 2024 presidential nomination, would be the presumptive nominee if Trump opts not to run, and is certainly the biggest political rock star to emerge on the right since Trump himself. And CPAC is being held in … Florida, his home state. He doesn’t even need to travel to be there. If ever there was a moment to showcase a rising party star, it’s the home-state governor being cheered by an audience that’s sure to adore him.

So why isn’t DeSantis speaking during prime time?

Bear in mind that the most coveted speaking slots at CPAC are always those that close out the program for the day. They happen in the evening on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and then mid-afternoon on Sunday. Trump is getting the most coveted slot, of course, the 7 p.m. address on Saturday. But DeSantis could have been given the 5 p.m. speech on Thursday, which ends the first day, or — better yet — the keynote at the Ronald Reagan Dinner at 7 p.m. on Friday. Or, if he couldn’t make those slots for whatever reason, he could have ended the conference and brought down the house at 2 p.m. on Sunday, sending home attendees with a rousing speech about “the free state of Florida.”

Care to guess who’s getting those slots instead?

On Thursday evening it’ll be Ted Cruz, a guy who’s been speaking at CPAC for at least 10 years and is less relevant politically now than he was during most of them. The keynote speaker at the Reagan Dinner is Glenn Beck, who gave the keynote address at CPAC alllllll the way back in 2010. And his “special guest” at the Dinner is, um, not a conservative:

CONFIRMED: @TulsiGabbard pic.twitter.com/JqaL0byn8U

— Matt Schlapp (@mschlapp) February 21, 2022

Gabbard has a rating of seven out of 100 on the American Conservative Union’s policy scorecard, Noah Rothman pointed out yesterday. But she reliably tells conservatives what they want to hear about how Biden is a tool and Putin is misunderstood and so she’s honored with a higher value speaking slot than Ron DeSantis.

As for the Sunday speech that’ll close the event, that honor goes to Tom Cotton. No, just kidding. It goes to Josh Hawley. No, kidding again. It doesn’t go to any elected official whom the party might logically want to promote or to any candidate running in an important election this fall.

It goes to Donald Trump Jr. We’re going to have two Trumps in the four primo speaking slots this year. In fact, even Trump’s fiancee, Kimberly Guilfoyle, has a better speaking slot than DeSantis. She’ll go on Thursday at 4 p.m., shortly before Cruz’s speech that ends the day.

How did this happen?

It can’t be that DeSantis was unwilling to speak later in the day across four days. He’s looking for opportunities to introduce himself to a wider conservative audience ahead of 2024 and he knows he’ll be received rapturously by the crowd. Whatever “scheduling conflict” he might eventually claim to have could surely have been moved in order to accommodate a turn in the spotlight at CPAC.

It can’t be that the conference organizers didn’t want him to speak in a big spot. They’ve seen the polling showing strong conservative interest in DeSantis’s future. The fact that they held CPAC in Florida this year is itself partially a tribute to DeSantis (as well as to Trump, of course), a signal that the party is foursquare behind his anti-mandate COVID policies. He’s a cinch to finish no lower than second in the CPAC presidential straw poll, certainly well ahead of Cruz. He was a natural pick for a primetime speech.

There’s only one person I can think of who has an interest in DeSantis not getting a star turn at the event. Did Trump lean on the organizers to schedule DeSantis in garbage time for fear of being upstaged by his only rival for the nomination?

Actually, I’ll amend that: Did Trump or one of his top advisors lean on organizers to schedule DeSantis in garbage time? Remember that there’s allegedly a feud between DeSantis and Susie Wiles, who managed his 2018 gubernatorial campaign, had a falling out with him over alleged leaking, and now directs Trump’s political operations. Did Wiles huddle with the CPAC organizers and demand that they stick it to DeSantis by giving him a bum speaking slot?

I don’t know how else to explain why the conference isn’t showcasing him. I assume we’ll eventually be assured that DeSantis got his early speaking slot on the first day because, as governor of the host state, he’s expected to open the conference and welcome everyone. But that’s no excuse. He could have done that in brief remarks and then given a longer, more ideological speech in the primetime slot that evening or on one of the other days. Shutting him out of those times makes no sense apart from someone influential behind the scenes wanting to sideline him for some personal reason.

Exit question: Who’s going to win the straw poll this year? Trump, right — but by how much?