Biden: We're going to win tonight in Virginia

Biden: We're going to win tonight in Virginia

Polls close in Virginia in exactly one hour. Let’s get the prognosticator-in-chief on the record before they do. Watch, then read on.

There are two types of information floating around on social media right now and I’m going to give you both, never mind that one of those types requires me to break a cardinal rule of election-night coverage.

The early exit polls are out, and even though one must never cite the early exits after the debacle in 2004 that showed John Kerry winning the presidency, let’s do it anyway. Just treat these as “interesting” and don’t get your hopes up too high because of them.

An electorate that doesn’t like Trump but does like Glenn Youngkin is an electorate that didn’t buy Democrats’ argument that Youngkin is Trump 2.0. And an electorate that likes Youngkin a lot more than Terry McAuliffe is an electorate that’s primed to make Youngkin governor. Hmmmm.

Also very much ungood for Dems:

So much for the early exits. The other, more reliable data circulating as I write this is the turnout trends across the state. According to multiple election analysts, Virginia looks set to blow the roof off — which isn’t necessarily good for Youngkin:

In a blue state that broke for Biden by 10 points, high turnout would normally be encouraging for Dems. Their nightmare scenario was having their base fall asleep on the race while Republicans marched to the polls en masse. That doesn’t seem to be happening:

The question is, what happens if turnout in blue areas is good but turnout in red areas is *great*? Are there enough Republicans left in Virginia to swamp the Dems even if Team Blue is getting solid turnout?

Anything could happen tonight. McAuliffe winning comfortably seems hard to imagine given the polling and the momentum shift over the past month but any other scenario seems plausible. Maybe independents are about to crush the Democrats, handing Youngkin a victory of some greater or lesser margin. Or maybe there are just too many Dems in the state to overcome when they’re turning out in reasonably high numbers.

Biden says he’ll be landing in the U.S. tonight at around 1 a.m. ET, returning from his trip to Europe. Will he arrive to find that his party averted disaster or will he arrive to a blowout Youngkin victory that singlehandedly shattered his national agenda? We’ll know seven hours from now.

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