Normally this is where I’d update you on the overnight news about how much closer Dems have gotten to a deal on infrastructure.

But the overnight news is that there is no news. There’s no deal, no “framework” between leftists and moderates on a reconciliation package that might convince the former to vote yes on the bipartisan bill 24 hours from now. They’re staring down the barrel of a fiasco.

It’s a cliche that congressional deals typically involve lengthy standoffs in which neither side gives an inch only to come together in the blink of an eye when one party makes a concession, and that remains a possibility here. Manchin and Sinema could walk into Biden’s office today with a reconciliation proposal, House progressives could accept it, and the whole thing might be done by dinnertime.

You wouldn’t bet that way if you had to bet, though. In fact, the newsiest scoop on infrastructure this morning is Politico’s report on what Sinema allegedly told Biden yesterday. Remember that story last week about her allegedly threatening to walk away from reconciliation if the bipartisan bill doesn’t pass tomorrow as scheduled? Politico claims today that she told Biden she still wants House progressives to go first. If lefties want any chance of a reconciliation deal, they need to take a leap of faith and capitulate before she does.

During a private meeting with the president, Sinema made clear she’s still not on board with the party’s $3.5 trillion social spending plan and is hesitant to engage on some specifics until the bipartisan infrastructure package passes the House, according to a person who spoke with her.

“This is the third time she said she has told the president, ‘I’m not there,’” the person said, quoting Sinema as telling the president: “‘I’ve been very clear with you from the start.’”

Sinema has problems with both the price tag and some of the tax increases devised to pay for it. After returning from his White House meeting, Manchin said that he did not give Biden a top-line number and made “no commitments from my standpoint.”…

“I’m worried my colleagues are going to shoot themselves in the foot,” said one Senate Democrat, who spoke under condition of anonymity. “We should find a solid number and move on.”

How are progressives handling that? Not well:

It’s not the infrastructure bill THEN maybe the Build Back Better package down the road. That wasn’t the deal.

Progressives won’t back down. We’re fighting the people’s fight and we’re going to deliver the entire Build Back Better agenda.

— Pramila Jayapal (@PramilaJayapal) September 29, 2021

Liberal anger is increasingly focused on Sinema, not Manchin. The left understands Manchin’s political predicament in representing a Trump +39 state as a Democrat. And Manchin has publicly declared his issues with the reconciliation bill, from his fear that it’ll contribute to inflation to wanting means-testing for some programs in it. Sinema, on the other hand, has kept mum publicly about her concerns apart from saying that $3.5 trillion is too much for her. And Sinema represents a state Biden won last fall. She got elected as a liberal to boot.

And so, increasingly, lefties are concluding that she’s the real Judas here, not Manchin. “Manchin has always been reasonable,” said progressive Ro Khanna to reporters yesterday. “At the end of the day, he’ll do what’s needed for the party, he always has.” But he called it “insane” that Sinema, from 50/50 Arizona, won’t at least name a topline number for reconciliation so that lefties have a sense of whether she’s even in the ballpark of what they want.

As for the president, he’s not twisting progressives’ arms to vote yes tomorrow. Instead he keeps trying to coax Manchin and Sinema into agreeing up front to a framework on reconciliation that he can then bring to lefties in the House as reassurance that reconciliation is going to happen eventually — if only they pass the bipartisan bill. But to reach that framework, Sinema would have to reverse herself on withholding specifics on the mega-bill until after the bipartisan bill passes. We’ll find out what she’s made of over the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, there’s no guarantee that a reconciliation “framework” would be enough to persuade progressives to pass the bipartisan bill. Some, like Khanna, have suggested that it would be. But as of this morning, Pelosi is claiming that she wants to see actual legislative language, not a “framework”:

This is relatively new: Pelosi says she wants legislative language for reconciliation before the infrastructure package gets a vote.

Pelosi also brought up my tweet from earlier this morning and confirmed that she does indeed have the authority to unilaterally delay the vote.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) September 29, 2021

Sure seems like the bipartisan bill is going down tomorrow. And some liberals, like TPM’s Josh Marshall, are okay with that:

I had a conversation yesterday similar to a number I’ve heard over recent days: a business lobbyist explaining that yes, they want the infrastructure bill real bad and that their optimal scenario is that the infrastructure bill passes and the reconciliation bill goes down to defeat entirely. A separate irony is that most of those people – the ones who appear to have Sinema’s ear – seem entirely unable to grasp the implications for the Democratic party if that is indeed the final outcome. It will rip the Democratic coalition apart. Of course, in general that’s not their concern or their problem. But it certainly means all the self-styled “moderates” they’re working with now will go down to defeat – both because of primaries but also just as the natural consequence of a Democratic rout. More business friendly Democrats in blue seats will also get replaced by more progressive members. I am consistently surprised how people whose whole job is politics, supposedly, seem to have so little grasp of its basic functions.

In any case, if you’re going to lose it is important to lose well rather than poorly. Doing so is a key way to actually win. But to win you have to be ready to lose well. Losing well is far better than losing poorly…

If it’s the BIF [bipartisan infrastructure framework] and nothing else, kill the BIF.

“We have to understand we’re in the situation of mutually assured destruction here. The old ‘MAD’ — Cold War. You kill my bill, I’ll kill yours,” said Dem Rep. Gerry Connolly yesterday. That’s about the size of it. Although, unlike with real MAD, it may not be that the bipartisan bill stays dead if progressives kill it tomorrow. Sinema could always turn around next week or next month or next year and say, “Fine, here are my terms on reconciliation.” And suddenly infrastructure will have been miraculously resurrected.

But Dems will suffer a lot of political pain in the interim. And they’ll hold a grudge with Sinema.

By the way, the many moving parts behind tomorrow’s vote aren’t limited to Democrats. There’s also an effort among Senate Republicans and business groups to lobby centrist House Republicans to vote with Pelosi and pass the bill. They could provide as many as 20 votes, which might be enough to offset losses among progressives if Pelosi can hold left-wing defections number down. But she’s promised that she won’t call a vote on the bill unless she knows it’ll pass and she’d have no assurance of that if she’s depending on Republicans. And even if Republicans did promise her the votes to get to 218, passing the bill over progressive objections might fracture her caucus and the party. She needs lefties on board if this thing is going to pass. Stay tuned.